World bank projects Armenia’s economy to grow 5.2% in 2025

Armenia’s economy is expected to grow by 5.2% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, according to the World Bank’s latest Country Economic Update.

The forecast does not factor in recent developments linked to the August 8 agreements involving Armenia, the United States, and Azerbaijan, including signals of upcoming grain supplies to Armenia via Azerbaijani territory, Caliber.Az reports via Armenian media. 

The World Bank’s projections align closely with those of the Armenian government, which anticipates average annual growth of 5.3% for 2026–2028.

According to the report, Armenia’s economic expansion continues to be driven primarily by the IT sector, which grew 25.6%, and construction, which increased 18.5%. Trade and services — excluding IT — grew 4.4%, marking a slowdown compared to 2022–2023, while industrial output contracted by 12.1%.

The analysis is based on data from the first half of 2025, though the World Bank noted that economic trends have remained broadly consistent in the months since.

Unemployment fell slightly to 13.1% at the end of the first quarter of 2025, compared to 13.9% at the end of 2024. The World Bank cautioned, however, that the drop may be partly formal, reflecting reduced shadow employment following state inspections.

By Sabina Mammadli