Zangezur Corridor: Iran’s changing stance in face of regional shifts Article by TRT World

The Turkish television network TRT World has published an article by Murat Sofuoglu discussing the future of the Zangezur Corridor. Caliber.Az offers its readers an analysis of the piece.

The article from TRT World offers a nuanced examination of the Zangezur Corridor and its implications for Iran's geopolitical strategy, regional dynamics, and its relationship with key international actors, including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Russia. It discusses how Iran's position on the corridor is evolving, as well as the broader shift in Middle Eastern power balances.

At the core of the analysis is the idea that the Zangezur Corridor, a major trade and transportation route linking Türkiye to Azerbaijan, is becoming an unavoidable geopolitical reality despite Iran's traditional opposition. The article emphasizes that regional shifts and Tehran’s waning influence in the Middle East are compelling Iran to reconsider its stance.

The article opens by noting how Iran’s Axis of Resistance is retreating in the Middle East, particularly with the weakening of Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and the downfall of Syrian ally Bashar al Assad. Experts predict that Iran might pull back from its active role in the region after a decade of power politics.

Despite historical resistance, Iran is softening its opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, a vital trade route running from Türkiye to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave and beyond, reaching the Caspian Sea. Tehran is reconsidering its opposition to the project, as the geopolitical landscape continues to shift. Zahid Farrukh Mammadov, an Azerbaijani academic, argues that Iran cannot block the project due to the diverse interests of the West, Turkic nations, and Russia.

While there is growing regional consensus on the corridor’s development, Iran continues to resist it due to national security concerns. Iran fears that the corridor will cut off its land link to Armenia, a key ally, thus diminishing its influence in the region. Iran also worries that the alignment of Baku and Ankara through the route will undermine Tehran’s regional standing.

However, experts like Kamer Kasim from Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University argue that the corridor could ultimately benefit Iran, offering economic advantages, especially given the country’s isolation under Western sanctions. Kasim also suggests that the corridor could be operational without Iran’s participation if Armenia agrees to cooperate.

The article suggests that Iran’s weakening power in the Middle East may lead it to reconsider its position. Tehran has faced significant internal challenges, including economic hardship, currency devaluation, and its inability to exert effective influence in the region. These difficulties might prompt Iran to recalibrate its policy and accept the development of the corridor, which would facilitate economic integration and growth across the region.

Mammadov argues that the 3+3 Regional Cooperation Platform, involving Türkiye, Iran, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, presents an opportunity to resolve political deadlocks and promote regional stability. This platform could play a crucial role in navigating tensions around the Zangezur Corridor.

The article stresses that no regional power can reject the emerging economic reality of the Zangezur Corridor. The project, which is viewed favorably by international powers such as the US and Russia, promises economic growth and stability for all involved, including Iran and Armenia.

Russia’s support for the corridor is also significant. Despite Armenia’s opposition, Russia, which historically had influence in the region, recognizes that the corridor is an inevitable development. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has publicly criticized Armenia’s resistance to the corridor, emphasizing the importance of unblocking transport routes and facilitating regional economic connectivity. Lavrov’s remarks align with Azerbaijan’s and Türkiye’s stance on the corridor’s importance.

The TRT World article provides a well-rounded analysis of the Zangezur Corridor’s strategic significance in the South Caucasus region. It highlights how Iran's opposition to the project, driven by national security concerns, is increasingly becoming untenable in the face of regional and international support for the corridor. The article underscores the inevitability of the corridor's development and suggests that Iran may eventually recalibrate its policy in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics and internal challenges.

Experts quoted in the article, such as Mammadov and Kasim, argue that the corridor’s development is seen as essential for the future prosperity of the region, benefiting not only Türkiye and Azerbaijan but also other regional powers, including Iran. The regional consensus on the corridor’s economic potential and the growing recognition of its importance make it clear that Iran’s resistance may no longer be sustainable in the long term.

Ultimately, the piece portrays the Zangezur Corridor as a transformative project that will reshape regional connectivity, strengthen economic ties, and contribute to peace and stability in the South Caucasus, regardless of Iran's initial opposition.