Pundit ponders on how Yerevan elections results will affect relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia

POLITICS  19 September 2023 - 10:35

Farhad Mammadov, political scientist and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, commented on the results of the elections to the Council of Elders in Yerevan in his Telegram channel.

"Notes on the election of the mayor of Iravan and how it can affect relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia!

⁃ The turnout at the voting (about 29 per cent) is very, very, very amidst the most intense campaign and political struggle.

⁃ the Armenian population does not trust any political organisation, and the crisis of the political system is evident.

⁃ Note that the winners as a result were former mayor Hayk Marutyan and, Vardan Ghukasyan (the same one who wears extravagant shirts and swears on the television) with political prisoner Artak Galstyan.

⁃ That is the first trend of Armenian politics: Marutyan - who has no ties with the "exes" and criticises Pashinyan. This, by the way, will lead to centrifugal actions in Pashinyan's party. Before these elections, Pashinyan's companions, especially the young ones, were taught the idea that their political future was possible only with Pashinyan, otherwise the "exes" would sweep them away. Now Marutyan has given them hope that it is possible to form a force without the "exes" and without Pashinyan. Being in Pashinyan's "backpack" is no longer a guarantee of victory. And the young will not want to go silently to the bottom in Pashinyan's "backpack"!

⁃ Vardan Ghukasyan is an indicator of the worldview crisis in Armenian society. The man only swears on the television and that's all! This is enough to get votes...

⁃ Pashinyan will have to answer in the party as well, as Avinyan's candidacy was weak and it was talked about. Smug and unreasonably pretentious.

⁃ The collapse of the "Vardanyan project", though this fraudster will still appear...

What about us?

Pashinyan's defeat may have a dual impact and will depend on the key factors - the parliamentary majority and the level of Western support.

It will be more difficult to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan on Baku's fair terms, as Marutyan left Pashinyan's party precisely because of the latter's position on Garabagh. The faction members will think twice before supporting Pashinyan.

It is most likely that Armenia will further aggravate its situation, as in the conditions of defeat in the capital, Pashinyan has no choice but to adopt the content of the opposition, and the agenda of Marutyan (see above) and Ghukasyan does not imply recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

Pashinyan in the current circumstances will be even more dependent on the support of the West - it is already the only track where he can play. And the West will be even more willing to support its lame-duck Armenian policy. However, this support will be limited to Armenia itself, without supporting its claims for Garabagh. By the way, the West itself will still have to think of this:), and the time is very short.

The Garabaghisation of the domestic political process in Armenia has hit Pashinyan, and the West must understand that the more Garabagh is in Armenia's politics, the less chance Pashinyan has of holding on to power.

Armenia's leadership is catastrophically short of time and Baku is narrowing its margin for manoeuvre. The Ijevan fox has brought itself to a dead end, from which there is no way out without solving the issue with Azerbaijan and on Baku's terms, in which, as Pashinyan himself said, there is nothing unacceptable for Armenia," Farhad Mammadov wrote.

Caliber.Az