Armenian intelligence evaluates likelihood of large-scale war with Azerbaijan in 2025

Armenian intelligence has assessed the probability of a large-scale military activity by Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2025 as low, according to a recent report by Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service.

The report, which analyzes key risks and threats for the year, indicates that while the chance of full-scale war is minimal, localized skirmishes and escalations remain a concern, Caliber.Az reports via Armenian media.

The evaluation, which draws on an analysis of various facts and recent events, suggests that tensions could be managed through ongoing border delimitation and demarcation processes, which may help reduce the likelihood of larger confrontations. However, the report acknowledges that the risk of sporadic clashes persists, especially in the absence of concrete peace agreements.

The Foreign Intelligence Service also highlights that bilateral negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are the most promising avenue for reducing tensions. However, it warns that delays in signing a peace treaty or normalizing relations would only add to the uncertainty and potential for escalation.

In terms of military developments, the report emphasizes that Azerbaijan is expected to continue strengthening its military capabilities throughout 2025. This includes enhancing mobile units, training reserves, and procuring new weapons and military equipment.

By Tamilla Hasanova