Asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike Moon in 2032, study says

A newly published study suggests that asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring about 60 meters across, has a 4.3% chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, an event that could trigger a bright lunar flash visible from Earth and unleash powerful meteor activity in the weeks that follow.

The asteroid was discovered in late December 2024 and initially drew global attention after early calculations briefly suggested a record-high risk of an Earth impact for an object of its size.

Subsequent trajectory updates ruled out any danger to Earth, but researchers confirmed a lingering possibility of a lunar collision. To evaluate that risk, scientists conducted 10,000 orbital simulations, mapping likely impact zones and analysing the complex gravitational interactions between the Earth, Moon, and Sun.

The models indicate that, if an impact occurs, it would strike a 3,000-kilometre corridor north of the Moon’s Tycho crater, releasing energy equivalent to about 6.5 million tons of TNT—making it the most powerful lunar impact ever modelled in the modern era. The collision would produce a flash comparable in brightness to Venus in the night sky, lasting several minutes and clearly visible for at least 10 seconds. While sunlight would limit naked-eye visibility in most scenarios, the flare would remain detectable with amateur telescopes regardless of the exact impact location.

Beyond the initial flash, the impact could eject up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material, some of which would escape the Moon’s gravity and travel toward Earth. Researchers say this debris could generate “super meteor storms” in Earth’s atmosphere between two and 100 days after the collision, offering an unprecedented chance to observe how a major lunar impact influences the Earth-Moon system.

Although the scenario remains uncertain, scientists stress that a predictable impact of this kind would represent a rare natural experiment, with the potential to significantly expand understanding of how small celestial bodies collide and how those processes connect to broader effects within the Earth-Moon system. According to the study’s authors, such an event would allow researchers to validate theoretical models used to predict impact damage, debris dispersal, and secondary effects associated with space collisions.

If it were to occur, the impact would temporarily turn the Earth-Moon system into a large-scale natural laboratory, providing observational data that is rarely available to modern planetary science.

Despite the relatively low probability, researchers continue to closely monitor asteroid 2024 YR4, refining trajectory models and awaiting future observations that could further reduce uncertainties surrounding the potential collision.

By Tamilla Hasanova