Could Iran’s urban areas run out of water?

Iran is facing an escalating water crisis, squeezed by rising domestic demand, decades of poor management, and intensifying cross-border tensions. The pressure is felt nationwide, from parched rural communities to major cities, with Tehran bracing for the dreaded “day zero” when taps could run dry.

Periodic water shutoffs, rolling blackouts linked to shortages, and even government-declared holidays tied to outages have long disrupted daily life. As Geopolitical Monitor notes in its latest article, water scarcity has fuelled rural depopulation, with families abandoning farms for cities — placing additional strain on already stretched urban systems.

In recent years, shortages have become a flashpoint for protests, often spilling into wider anti-government demonstrations. Analysts warn these pressures amplify risks and cast doubt on the Iranian state’s long-term ability to maintain stability.

Roots of the crisis

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, food self-sufficiency was elevated to a matter of national security, aimed at minimizing foreign dependence. Family policy also shifted, with the Ayatollah urging Iranians to expand households in support of building a “twenty million army.” By 1986, the population was growing at more than 3 percent annually — one of the fastest rates worldwide.

That legacy endures today. Agriculture consumes over 90 percent of Iran’s water resources, while the population has swelled more than 50 percent since 1990 to exceed 91 million. The pursuit of agricultural independence, paired with surging food demand, has locked the country into an unsustainable mismatch between scarce water supplies and rising needs in an arid climate.

Water management has worsened the imbalance. Post-revolutionary Iran embarked on a dam-building spree, becoming one of the world’s top three dam constructors. While dams can regulate flows and provide storage, overbuilding has produced severe downsides: evaporation losses, reduced groundwater recharge, and depleted downstream rivers. Many reservoirs now sit dangerously low, undermining their utility.

To compensate, Iran has leaned heavily on groundwater extraction, including fossil aquifers. Cheap energy and modern pumps drove a boom in wells, accelerating aquifer depletion and sinking water tables nationwide.

The crisis, however, is not solely of Iran’s own making. Developments in neighbouring Afghanistan and Türkiye are compounding its challenges.

Afghanistan

Relations with the Taliban government have deteriorated as water competition intensifies. The Helmand River, whose headwaters and 80 percent of its basin lie in Afghanistan, once fed the Hamoun Wetlands in eastern Iran. Now, diversions upstream are drying the wetlands, worsening poverty, food insecurity, and dust storms across Sistan and Baluchestan.

On the Harirud River, Afghan dams have reduced flows into Iran and Turkmenistan, draining the Doosti reservoir that supplies Mashhad — Iran’s second largest city — and surrounding farmland. A water transfer pipeline to Mashhad now delivers only a fraction of its intended volume.

Türkiye

Further west, the Tigris-Euphrates basin has become another flashpoint. The dual rivers rise in Türkiye before flowing through Syria and Iraq into the Persian Gulf, where they are critical to national water supply. Türkiye’s vast Great Anatolian Dam Project (GAP) project has already built 18 dams, with more under way, capable of storing over 100 billion cubic meters.

Downstream, Iraq has seen migration from parched farmlands, while Iran’s own dams on eastern Tigris tributaries have dried out parts of Iraqi Kurdistan. Tehran, in turn, denounces GAP as destabilizing for the region. Though bilateral water agreements exist, no multilateral framework governs this basin.

Role of climate change

Climate change further magnifies the crisis. Shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns exacerbate the fallout from mismanagement and regional disputes, deepening shortages.

The combined effect — overuse, groundwater depletion, transboundary pressures, and environmental change — is devastating. Crop failures and collapsing rural livelihoods are driving migration into overcrowded cities. Urban water demand keeps rising, while supply struggles to keep pace.

Although last year’s 12-day Iran-Israel war briefly galvanized nationalist unity, that momentum quickly faded. Renewed water and power shortages have reignited demonstrations in Tehran and other cities, highlighting how scarcity is eroding both public trust and political stability.

By Nazrin Sadigova