Credibility at stake: Why US deterrence in Indo-Pacific faces its greatest test yet?

In a volatile Indo-Pacific landscape where power projection and strategic messaging increasingly define state behaviour, a recent Foreign Affairs article provides an analysis of how China is systematically attempting to dismantle the credibility of US extended deterrence.

Framed around growing tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the article outlines the broader geopolitical stakes of US military commitments in the region — and why these commitments are now under unprecedented strain.

The flashpoint came with the US deployment of the Typhon intermediate-range missile system to the Philippines in 2024, marking a historic escalation in American military aid. This move, meant to reaffirm Washington’s security guarantees, was met with fierce diplomatic condemnation from Beijing, which labelled the deployment a disruption of regional peace. China’s response—ranging from maritime harassment to diplomatic threats—reflects a calculated strategy to undermine the very foundations of extended deterrence by questioning both US capability and resolve.

From Beijing’s perspective, US extended deterrence is not a benign security architecture, but a geopolitical tool aimed at containing China's rise. Chinese rhetoric, as echoed in forums like the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty meetings and the Shangri-La Dialogue, has consistently cast the United States as a destabilising force. China asserts that far from preventing nuclear proliferation, US alliances encourage it by expanding the global footprint of nuclear threats. Such arguments seek to delegitimise American influence while positioning China as a proponent of regional autonomy and peace—albeit on its own terms.

The article makes clear that China is not relying on rhetoric alone. It has coupled its ideological opposition to US deterrence with hard power measures: cyberattacks, maritime gray-zone operations, military drills simulating assaults on Taiwan, and infrastructure-driven economic coercion. These layered tactics are not just reactive, but proactive efforts to dissuade US allies from trusting Washington’s security guarantees.

Furthermore, Beijing’s alignment with Moscow adds another dimension to the challenge. The Sino-Russian “friendship without limits” signals a deepening military and technological partnership aimed at countering Western influence. Joint exercises, drone development, and early warning systems cooperation underscore a shared strategic vision: to deter, discredit, and possibly outmanoeuvre US military posturing, analysis believes.

In response, the article argues, the United States must do more than merely reiterate its commitments. It must aggressively contest China’s narrative in global forums, expose coercive tactics, and develop rapid-response military capabilities. Critically, Washington must convince allies that it is prepared to act decisively—even under a nuclear threat. Multilateral cooperation, particularly through AUKUS and with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, is portrayed as essential for maintaining deterrence integrity.

Ultimately, the survival of extended deterrence hinges not just on arms and alliances, but on the sustained credibility of US promises. Should China succeed in eroding this trust, the balance of power in Asia could shift dramatically—leaving both American interests and regional stability in jeopardy.

By Sabina Mammadli