El Niño return spells trouble for health, WHO warns

Global temperatures will rise to new highs as the naturally-occurring weather-warming phenomenon collides with man-made warming, UN officials said.

Countries should brace for a triple-whammy of diseases, malnutrition and health system disruptions over the next two years amid the sizzling return of the weather pattern El Niño, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on July 4, Geneva Solutions reports.

“The WHO is preparing for the very high probability that 2023 and 2024 will be marked by the El Niño event and this is obviously a major concern for a health agency like ours,” Dr Maria Neira, WHO director for environment, climate change and health, told reporters in Geneva.

Neira’s comments come after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that the onset of El Niño – a natural weather-warming phenomenon driven by warmer ocean water temperatures – was on.

According to the WMO, 2016, the last time an El Niño event was recorded, remains the warmest year on record.

Its return, coupled with unbridled, man-made warming, is expected to break new heat records, with officials from both UN agencies urging governments to be prepared.

“El Niño will have very severe effects on health,” Neira said, adding that “an increasing number of people will be affected by infectious diseases like measles or meningitis”.

Neira warned that governments also needed to be prepared for a surge in everything from insect-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue or rift valley fever, to waterborne illnesses, like cholera.

She said countries in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, prone to bouts of extreme heat, were of particular concern for the WHO.

Countries in those regions already grappling with humanitarian crises, conflicts or other disruptions, such as Pakistan, Myanmar and countries in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, would be among the most vulnerable, she added, noting that another area of concern was food insecurity, as the sizzling heat drove and exacerbated wildfires, drought and water scarcity.

According to an estimate in March by the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC), which is co-drafted by UN agencies including the World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organisation, 153 million people are already expected to face “high levels of acute food insecurity” in 2023. Raging and protracted conflicts in Haiti, Sudan, Nigeria or Yemen have raised concerns that those numbers could rise even further.

“We are particularly concerned about food insecurity that it might create and therefore increase moderate and acute malnutrition, especially of course, among the most vulnerable,” she said.

On top of a surge in diseases, Neira also warned that countries could face health service disruptions or damages in the event of weather disruptions, such as flooding, cyclones, extreme heat, wildfires or simply due to a lack of sufficient water supply.

Speaking at the same briefing, the head of the WMO’s regional climate prediction service, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, said that it was likely that the record for the warmest year would be broken within the next five years. While Moufouma Okia said it was difficult to say when this would happen, in May, the organisation said that this tends to play out “the year after its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024”.

Beating the heat

Neira said the WHO was working to boost country capacities to respond and build preventative stocks to rein back heat-fuelled diseases as well as malnutrition.

She said it was crucial to “reinforce our disease control and surveillance systems” as well as meteorological early warning systems, in order to boost readiness and response capacities to potential climate disasters or extreme heatwave episodes.

In a statement, WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas urged governments to see the onset of El Niño as a “signal” to prepare and anticipate its effects in order to contain its health, environmental and economic impact and “to save lives and livelihoods”.

Neira stressed that governments should also be prepared for the probability of increased heatwave-linked mortality as well as the heat’s impact on the most vulnerable, such as elderly or pregnant populations or children.

She also said it was crucial to look out for people working outdoors and take steps to limit their risk of dehydration or heat stroke, for example, by “making sure their working hours are adapted (…) to the increase of temperature that is expected”.