Experts speculate over Tokyo's strategy behind cancellation of major defence talks with US

It has been several days since reports emerged about Japan’s unexpected decision to cancel scheduled security talks with the United States that were to be held in Washington, involving the two nations' top foreign and defense officials. Analysts say the move appears to be a deliberate strategy by Tokyo to push back against intensifying US pressure and avoid having trade tensions bleed into military matters.

The Financial Times first reported last week that Japan had withdrawn from the planned high-level “2+2” meeting on July 1 between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and their Japanese counterparts, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani.

The US-Japan Security Consultative Committee (“2+2”) Meeting, convened annually, has served as a central forum for bilateral foreign policy and defense coordination, according to the US State Department.

Tensions have recently flared between the allies as the Trump administration pushed Tokyo to raise its defense budget to 3.5 percent of GDP, exceeding a previous demand of 3 percent. On June 23, Japan's Prime Minister even announced his absence from this week's NATO summit that is currently unfolding in the Netherlands, as reported by Nikkei Asia, signaling another message to Washington on their interpretation of the state of their defence ties.

Yoichiro Sato, professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, told the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that the move to cancel was “a tactical move” by Tokyo.

“Japan has been trying to keep the tariff talks and the defence talks separate,” Sato said, explaining that even handling tariffs alone is more than the “weak” administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba “can handle.”

“Any additional US pressure through issue linkage across onto the defence issues would simply invite a paralysis in the Japanese government,” Sato added.

Alongside the current 25 percent tariffs imposed on Japanese auto and steel exports to the US, Japan is also facing the threat of a 24 percent “reciprocal” tariff on all remaining exports starting July 9.

Tom Corben, a research fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, argued that US demands for more military spending weren’t the sole reason behind the cancellation.

“You don’t just outright cancel a 2+2 meeting,” he said, pointing out that similar demands had been made of other US allies in the region.

“It is a very crude measure of whether or not a country is ‘serious’ about its national defence or whether an alliance is fit for purpose,” Corben said.

He suggested that Tokyo was looking to revisit discussions with Washington after elections to Japan’s Upper House, hoping to approach negotiations “from a position of domestic strength.”

According to the SCMP report, Tokyo is also aiming to resume talks with Washington after the July 20 Upper House vote, with analysts echoing that it hopes to negotiate from “a position of domestic strength.”

By Nazrin Sadigova