Fertiliser crisis hits Europe amid Iran tensions, Russian dependence

Europe’s agriculture sector faces a severe fertiliser squeeze as the Iran war disrupts global supply routes, sending prices soaring while exposing the continent’s lingering reliance on Russian imports. March, a critical month for winter wheat, sugar beet, and rapeseed, coincides with heightened pressure on fertiliser markets, threatening both timing and costs for farmers, Euronews writes.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US attacks on Iran has halted shipments from key producers, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, through a corridor that handles roughly a third of the world’s fertiliser trade. The disruption comes on top of sharply rising gas prices, with the European TTF benchmark climbing from around €32 to nearly €52 per megawatt-hour in just weeks. Natural gas drives about 80% of nitrogen fertiliser production costs, making these price spikes particularly painful.

Market consequences are already apparent. In Lower Saxony, calcium ammonium nitrate—the mainstay of nitrogen fertiliser—has jumped 15% in a month. Urea prices in Schleswig-Holstein are markedly higher than before the Iran conflict. While current supply levels remain adequate for this season, retailers and hauliers struggle to keep up with distribution, highlighting logistical bottlenecks rather than outright scarcity.

For smaller farms, the financial strain is acute. Paul Henschke, a Saxony-Anhalt farmer managing 80 hectares, explains, “Urea currently costs 550 euros per tonne net, lime ammonium nitrate around 370 euros. For 200 kilos of calcium ammonium nitrate, I already pay 70 euros per hectare—just for the first application of fertiliser.” With feed wheat fetching 168 euros per tonne and transport costs climbing, he observes dryly, “You have to do the maths.” Henschke does not expect swift political intervention, noting, “We haven’t heard much movement from agricultural policy yet. It's very sluggish.”

Even larger operations are feeling the pinch. Dr Willi Kremer-Schillings, known as “Farmer Willi,” reports that mineral fertiliser costs have surged by roughly 40%, with spreading expenses compounding the problem. While he secured stock in autumn, he fears future shortages should the conflict escalate further. “I am firmly convinced that the state will do nothing. So far, they've almost always just thrown a spanner in the works,” he says, emphasising a pragmatic approach: “We are entrepreneurs—so let's do something.”

The crisis underscores Europe’s structural vulnerability: continued dependence on Russian fertilisers. According to the EU Commission, Russia accounted for 22% of EU imports in 2025, worth €1.3 billion in the first half alone, while supplying 45 million tonnes globally, making it the top exporter. Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, the Baltic states, and Bulgaria, remain heavily reliant on these imports. Even Western European traders turn to Russian alternatives when Gulf supplies falter, despite EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilisers implemented since July 2025.

Germany faces its own challenges as domestic plants, reliant on Russian gas, struggle to remain economically viable. Martin May, Managing Director of the German Agricultural Industry Association (IVA), warns that closures would threaten both supply security and environmental standards, which European producers adhere to more strictly than Russian competitors. Kremer-Schillings reflects the practical reality for farmers: “I buy my fertiliser from the cooperative, and they load it onto my trailer. I don’t know where it comes from. You need the fertiliser when the fields need it.”

For the IVA and the wider industry, the key takeaway is clear: robust domestic production is essential for price stability and supply security. The crisis also raises wider concerns, including potential loss of sulphur and other raw materials critical to fertiliser production, with possible repercussions for food security in Africa and the Middle East, as well as regional stability.

By Jeyhun Aghazada