Foreign Policy: Western countries grow weary of Ukraine conflict

A recent article in Foreign Policy magazine highlights the West's diminishing political will to support Ukraine’s military ambitions and an increasing focus on pursuing a negotiated peace with Russia.

Western nations appear increasingly fatigued by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to the magazine.

Nearly three years after the onset of hostilities, Western countries reportedly lack the political will to help Ukraine achieve a military victory. Instead, they seem focused on brokering peace negotiations with Russia. The magazine notes that this shift reflects a preference for a negotiated settlement, even if it results in a “bad peace,” echoing a Russian proverb that claims, "A bad peace is better than a good quarrel."

If the West pursues this "bad peace," it will need a negotiation strategy that addresses four critical areas: territorial concessions, security guarantees for Ukraine, reparations, and sanctions.

Before Donald Trump’s recent electoral victory, some of Ukraine’s strongest allies had already begun to suggest that Ukraine might need to accept territorial losses. A likely settlement scenario could involve trading land for security, which may include ceding territories such as Donetsk, significant portions of the Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Such a resolution would mark a significant departure from the West's earlier commitments to Ukraine's territorial integrity and its aspirations for regime change in Russia. However, realpolitik appears to be driving these considerations, leaving little room for moral principles.

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agrees to territorial concessions, NATO membership might be Ukraine's only viable security guarantee. Yet, this conflicts with the stance of US Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, who advocates for a demilitarized zone along the current front lines and a commitment to Ukraine’s neutrality.

The incoming US administration also lacks a clear long-term strategy for Europe’s security, particularly as it confronts the possibility of a resurgent Russia and a weakened Ukraine, the article notes. This ambiguity could leave Europe vulnerable in the coming years. Another potential path might involve Trump supporting Ukraine's membership in a restructured NATO — potentially excluding the United States — forcing European nations to take full responsibility for their security.

The magazine emphasizes that any negotiated peace will likely be perceived as a de facto capitulation of Ukraine and the West to Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia’s military situation remains more stable than Ukraine's due to robust government incentives that sustain a steady flow of military volunteers, averting the manpower challenges Ukraine faces.

On the economic front, Russia has successfully reoriented its trade and financial systems toward Eastern markets, particularly China, India, and other Asian and Middle Eastern countries. It has diversified energy exports away from Europe and boosted domestic production. Despite ongoing sanctions, revenue from oil continues to flow, albeit from new markets. Additionally, Russia has developed alternative financial systems such as SPFS for cross-border payments and the Mir payment system, which replaced Western platforms like Visa and MasterCard.

By Tamilla Hasanova