FT: Can Ukraine’s military survive the end of US support?

The long-anticipated prospect of Ukraine fighting without US weapons, equipment, or intelligence is now a looming reality after the White House announced it would cut military aid to Kyiv on March 3.

A senior Ukrainian intelligence official warned that the country is likely to run out of the last US military supplies within “two or three months.”

“After that, it will be very difficult for us,” the official told the Financial Times. “It will not be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from areas more quickly.”

As Russia's invasion enters its fourth year, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops are fending off constant Russian attacks along the 1,000 km-long frontline. The end of US military aid will have far-reaching consequences, despite efforts by European allies to supplement some of the missing equipment.

The White House’s decision to suspend aid followed a clash between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which was triggered by Zelenskyy’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire without assurances to prevent further Russian aggression. On Monday, the White House said it was “pausing and reviewing” its military aid to ensure Ukraine’s leadership is “committed” to a peace deal.

Since the war began, the US has provided a staggering $65.9 billion in military support to Ukraine. This includes everything from artillery shells and armoured vehicles to sophisticated air defence systems and long-range missiles. Crucially, US intelligence-sharing has continued, though it remains unclear how the suspension of other aid will affect the broader war effort.

European allies have ramped up their efforts in recent days to procure military equipment, but they continue to struggle with scaling up arms production. Key equipment, like the Patriot missile systems used by Ukraine, remains unique to the US. A shortage of interceptor missiles for the five US-made Patriot systems would severely damage Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, especially as Russia intensifies its missile and drone attacks.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal emphasized on Tuesday that the Patriot system is the only one capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. If Ukraine’s military is forced to stop using its most advanced air defence system, it will face difficult decisions on how to prioritize defence — whether to protect airfields, power plants, or military factories.

At the frontlines, where drones are heavily used by both sides, the lack of US-supplied vehicles and weapons requiring constant maintenance could soon be felt. While Ukraine has begun to rely more on domestically produced drones, it still uses a wide range of US-made equipment that depends on a steady flow of spare parts and ammunition.

The US-supplied Himars multiple rocket launchers have been crucial for Ukraine in destroying Russian command posts and logistical centers. Ukraine's Special Forces recently released footage of a Himars strike that destroyed a Russian self-propelled “Malva” howitzer. But without a real substitute for the Himars, Ukrainian military analyst Pavlo Narozhny warned, “The front won’t collapse, but Russia will keep advancing.”

Another immediate concern is the potential shutdown of Elon Musk’s Starlink system, which has been essential for communication across Ukraine's military operations. The satellite internet system has been widely used by Ukrainian forces, from infantry units to intelligence and artillery crews. “If Starlink is shut down, problems will start immediately,” said Yehor Firsov, a former Ukrainian MP now serving in the military. While alternative communications exist, the flow of video and photo footage critical for battlefield decisions would be severely disrupted.

In response to the suspension of US aid, Ukraine has accelerated efforts to develop its own defence capabilities. Serhiy Prytula, head of one of Ukraine’s largest military fundraising organizations, emphasized the need for self-reliance. “We need to train here in Ukraine as if the United States will disappear,” Prytula said, expressing gratitude for the US support but emphasizing the importance of developing Ukraine’s defence industry alongside European partners.

By Tamilla Hasanova