FT: Russia upgrades missiles to evade Ukraine’s air defences

Months of sustained Russian air attacks suggest Moscow has modified its missiles to bypass Ukraine’s defences, Ukrainian and Western officials told the Financial Times.

Recent strikes targeting Ukrainian drone production facilities illustrate these improvements, which appear designed to counter US-supplied Patriot batteries.

Officials said Russia likely upgraded its mobile Iskander-M system, with an estimated range of up to 500 km, and Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, capable of flying up to 480 km. The missiles now follow conventional trajectories before performing steep terminal dives or evasive manoeuvres that make interception by Patriot systems difficult.

Ukraine saw a sharp decline in missile interception rates over the summer. While August figures showed a 37 per cent success rate, September saw just six per cent of ballistic missiles intercepted, despite fewer launches. On October 1, Ukraine reported that four overnight Iskander-M launches had all reached their targets.

The attacks have hit key military and infrastructure sites, including at least four drone-making facilities in and around Kyiv. An August 28 strike on a Bayraktar drone production facility reportedly damaged the offices of the EU delegation and the British Council as well.

Patriot batteries are Ukraine’s primary defence against Russian ballistic missiles, while cruise missiles can be intercepted with less advanced systems. Western and Ukrainian officials noted that Russian missiles’ new “terminal phase” behaviours—diverging from predictable paths—have reduced interception rates. A US Defence Intelligence Agency report covering April to June 2025 confirmed that these upgrades allow Russian missiles to manoeuvre, complicating Patriot engagement.

Experts attribute the increased effectiveness to software adjustments rather than hardware changes, allowing Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles to execute abrupt terminal-stage manoeuvres and steep dives, confusing missile tracking. Analysts described the situation as a “cat-and-mouse game” between Ukraine and Russia over technological adaptation.

Sustained attacks have also targeted Ukraine’s Patriot infrastructure and personnel. Specialist operators, such as Lieutenant Colonel Denys Sakun—credited with helping down the first Russian Kinzhal missile—have been killed, and some air-defence batteries damaged. With the arrival of new systems from Germany and Norway, Ukraine has at least six deployed Patriots and components for three additional batteries. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has requested up to 10 complete systems from Western partners.

With winter approaching, Zelenskyy warned that Russia is resuming strikes on Ukraine’s power grid to induce blackouts and undermine morale. Combined with the evolving missile technology, these attacks present a heightened threat to the country’s infrastructure and civilian population.

By Tamilla Hasanova