Global warming worsens as 1.5°C target slips out of reach, scientists warn

The world is heading toward a future of flooded megacities, vanishing glaciers, and collapsing ice sheets as global efforts to tackle climate change falter, a series of new scientific reports warn.

Three decades of climate action have slowed the growth of planet-warming pollution, but the progress is far from enough. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations both concluded this month that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal is now “slipped out of reach.” The UN’s latest Emissions Gap Report projects global temperatures will rise by 2.3°C to 2.5°C this century under current pledges — and up to 2.8°C, with a one-in-five chance of hitting 3°C, if promises are not met, according to CNN.

Back in 2015, the world was on course for 4°C of warming.

“I certainly think some self-congratulation is in order — we have replaced enough fossil fuels with clean energy to dramatically reduce climate risks in a single lifetime,” said Kim Cobb, director of Brown University’s Institute for Environment and Society. “But humanity is careening toward an untenable future.”

The planet has already warmed by about 1.4°C, triggering deadly heat waves, droughts, and floods. A 2°C to 3°C rise, experts say, could unleash irreversible climate tipping points such as collapsing ice sheets and devastating sea level rise. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, warned:

“A 3-degree-warmer world — just to give a few specific tangible pictures of what that looks like — that’s a world where the sea level is feet higher than it currently is today, where global megacities that are within a few feet of sea level, their viability is seriously threatened... And that’s just a short list.”

Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London noted that while projected warming has dropped by about 1°C since 2015, the window to limit warming to 1.5°C has closed.

“This year is the first year where... we don’t find any technically possible pathways anymore that would be limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” he said.

The expected 2°C to 3°C rise, he added, remains “extremely dangerous,” particularly for developing countries least equipped to adapt.

“Given the evidence that we see, I would really not consider anything between 2 and 3 degrees livable,” he warned.

Climate scientist Kate Marvel said feedback effects — like the burning of the Amazon rainforest or thawing Arctic permafrost — could worsen warming.

"Even 2 to 3 degrees Celsius is scary,” she said. “Sea level rise is no big deal until it overcomes your flood defenses. Drought is manageable until your city or farm runs out of water.”

“The more we learn, the worse it looks,” Rogelj said. Or, as he put it, “We expect higher risks at lower levels of warming.”

Despite modest progress, experts agree: the world cannot afford to slow down.

“I’m glad we’ve made progress,” said Marvel, “but we can’t sit back, congratulate ourselves, and think we’ll be safe.”

By Sabina Mammadli