Gulf countries embark on diplomatic marathon to prevent Iran-US escalation

Arab Gulf states are closely monitoring the situation in neighbouring Iran, where nationwide protests have raised fears of broader regional instability. While Gulf countries maintain generally steady bilateral relations with Washington, they are wary of the turmoil that could follow either a US military strike on Iran or the collapse of the Islamic Republic's governing body.

US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Tehran, a prospect that many Gulf states fear could plunge the Middle East into chaos, according to an Al Jazeera analysis. Such an escalation, they worry, would have far-reaching political, economic, and security consequences across the region.

The outlet reports that Saudi Arabia has been actively lobbying the US administration to avoid striking Iran, while Qatar and Oman have focused their efforts on diplomatic outreach aimed at facilitating communication between Iranian and American officials.

These three countries intensified their diplomatic engagement after reports on January 14 suggested that contacts between Washington and Tehran had broken down, heightening concerns that an attack on Iranian territory could be imminent.

For Gulf nations, the risks of military escalation are significant. A strike on Iran could disrupt global oil markets, undermine their carefully cultivated image as safe destinations for investment and business, and provoke Iranian retaliation on their soil.

These concerns persist despite Trump telling reporters on January 14 that he had received information indicating that “the killing in Iran is stopping". Analysts caution that this does not amount to a clear path toward de-escalation, especially since the US president did not rule out the use of force.

Although each member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has a distinct history and relationship with Iran, experts say they share a common fear of what might follow a sudden change in Tehran. Gulf leaders are concerned about who would fill the vacuum if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were replaced or if the political system were to collapse abruptly.

The experience of Iraq after the 2003 US-led invasion looms large in these calculations. The collapse of the Iraqi state and the ensuing chaos—marked by civil war, the rise of al-Qaeda, and eventually the emergence of ISIL (ISIS)—is a scenario Gulf countries are keen to avoid seeing repeated in Iran, a country of more than 90 million people with substantial military capabilities and a weakened but still active network of regional allies.

“They may like to see the Iranian leadership weakened, but all of them are more concerned about a scenario of chaos and uncertainty and the possibility of more radical elements coming to power there,” said Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.

Some Gulf states have developed pragmatic ways to coexist with Iran. Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman maintain working relationships with Tehran, and Doha even shares the world’s largest natural gas reservoir with Iran. The United Arab Emirates also has strong economic ties with Iran, with Dubai serving as a key hub for bilateral trade. Unrest or military action in Iran would therefore have serious economic repercussions for the UAE.

Despite these stakes, Emirati officials have remained largely silent in recent days. Al Jazeera notes that the UAE has diverged from some GCC partners by aligning more closely with Israel and adopting different positions on conflicts in Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, long considered regional rivals, have in recent years shifted toward a more pragmatic relationship focused on keeping communication channels open and avoiding direct escalation. Riyadh is particularly sensitive to the risks of regional instability as it pursues ambitious economic reforms aimed at reducing its dependence on oil and expanding tourism—objectives that depend heavily on stability both domestically and across the wider Middle East.

By Nazrin Sadigova