Iceland sets Aug. 29 referendum on relaunching EU membership talks

Iceland could conclude negotiations to join the European Union within about a year and a half and potentially become the bloc’s 28th member state, according to the country’s foreign minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir.

In an interview with POLITICO, Gunnarsdóttir said the timeline would be realistic if Icelanders vote in favour of relaunching accession talks in a national referendum scheduled for Aug. 29.

The referendum will determine whether the government should resume negotiations that were previously halted. A recent poll conducted by Gallup indicates a closely divided electorate, with 52 percent supporting the move to restart talks and 48 per cent opposing it.

“Sometimes you don’t have to let the poll lead, but lead yourself,” said Gunnarsdóttir, who leads the pro-European Viðreisn party.

Iceland already has deep institutional links with the European Union. The country is a member of the European Economic Area and also participates in the Schengen Area, meaning it has already adopted a large share of EU legislation. Because of this alignment, Gunnarsdóttir said that concluding accession negotiations would likely be relatively straightforward if talks are resumed.

“It will not be so complicated for us” and “would be rather a quick process” to complete negotiations, she said.

When asked whether Iceland could overtake current accession candidates such as Montenegro — widely considered one of the most advanced applicants — to become the EU’s next member state, Gunnarsdóttir responded that it was possible. However, she noted that fisheries policy would likely be the most difficult issue during negotiations.

“The biggest issue will, of course, be the fisheries,” she said.

Iceland initially applied for EU membership in 2009 during a severe financial crisis. Negotiations were suspended in 2013 amid disputes over fisheries policy and changes in the country’s economic circumstances. In 2015, Reykjavík formally withdrew its application.

Before talks were halted, the Icelandic government had closed 11 of the 33 negotiating chapters required for accession — a milestone that Montenegro surpassed only in recent months.

An EU official, speaking anonymously to POLITICO last month, suggested that negotiations with Reykjavík could theoretically be completed in as little as one year if talks were resumed.

Gunnarsdóttir also cautioned that even if voters approve the relaunch of negotiations in the August referendum, a second referendum would still be required after talks conclude in order to ratify any eventual membership agreement.

According to the foreign minister, the advantages of joining the EU have become more evident amid growing geopolitical instability.

“It’s also very important for our businesses, for our industries that we give them a shelter and safeguard them within the Union,” she said.

Gunnarsdóttir argued that EU membership could bring economic benefits to Iceland. “We always have higher inflation and interest rates than other European countries. And there are too many monopolies in the economy,” she said.

She also stressed that Iceland’s membership would benefit the European Union as well, noting the country’s strategic geographic position and strong economy.

With the upcoming referendum, Gunnarsdóttir said the government is placing the decision directly in the hands of voters.

“With the August referendum, we are giving the power to the people,” she said. “I would say it would be beneficial both for Iceland and the European Union to negotiate now, not in two years’ time or whatever, but now.”

By Tamilla Hasanova