Investigation into AZAL plane crash: Kazakhstan publishes interim findings

The Department for the Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport of the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan has published an interim report on the investigation of the crash involving the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, operating flight Baku — Grozny, which crashed near Aktau.

According to Caliber.Az, the report states:

"This Interim Report has been issued on the anniversary of the aviation accident in accordance with Standard 6.6 of Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation (ICAO) and paragraph 94 of the Rules for the Submission of Data and Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Civil and Experimental Aviation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, approved by the Minister of Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan on 27 July 2017, No. 505 (hereinafter – the Rules).

On December 25, 2024, an aviation accident occurred near Aktau involving the Embraer 190 aircraft 4K-AZ65 of Azerbaijan Airlines, operating passenger flight J2-8243 on the route Baku (UBBB) – Grozny (URMG).

As a result of the accident, 38 people were killed (including 3 crew members), and 29 others sustained injuries of varying severity.

The commission investigating this accident, appointed by the order of the Acting Minister of Transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan on December 26, 2024, No. 433, continues its work to determine the causes and contributing factors of the accident.

The investigation commission includes authorised representatives from the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation, and the Federative Republic of Brazil, as well as an observer from ICAO.

On February 4, 2025, in accordance with Standard 7.4 of ICAO Annexe 13 and paragraph 77 of the Rules, a Preliminary Report was issued.

At the time of preparing the Interim Report, the Commission had collected and analysed factual data, including information on the crew, air traffic controllers, the operator’s regulations, flight preparation and execution documentation, meteorological data, and maintenance records. Copies of the flight log and other flight-related documents were obtained.

Work was conducted with the onboard recorders: flight parameters were extracted, identified, and decoded from the Flight Data Recorder (FDR), and the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) was transcribed.

The Commission carried out a detailed examination of the accident site, recording the spatial positions of the aircraft’s structural elements. Photo and video documentation was performed, and aircraft components were collected and removed from the accident site.

As part of the investigation into the aviation accident, the following examinations were conducted:

– Comprehensive examination (including trace, ballistic, explosive, and fire analysis) of foreign metallic objects (external items) recovered from the site. The examination found no traces of explosives. No evidence of an explosion was found on the three oxygen cylinders submitted for testing. The aircraft damage was presumably caused by fragments from a warhead, but their origin could not be determined.

– Trace examination of a section of hydraulic system pipe No. 2. The study revealed that the pipe had sustained damage. The mechanism of damage was determined to be metal rupture caused by contact with hard objects. Through-holes may have been caused by metallic fragments (external objects) made of an iron-based metal alloy (primarily steel).

– Examination of the Central Maintenance Computer (CMC) cassette, extracted from the Modular Avionics Unit manufactured by Honeywell International Inc. Due to thermal damage, it was not possible to extract data from the cassette. To retrieve the data, Honeywell recommended contacting the memory card manufacturer, Delkin Devices Inc.

The Commission is currently negotiating with the authorised representative of the United States of America to conduct examinations at the Delkin Devices Inc. facility.

– Examination of Global Positioning System (GPS1 and GPS2) cassettes, extracted from Avionics Modular Units No. 1 and No. 3, manufactured by CMC Electronics, has been completed, and analysis is ongoing.

The investigation commission has established two working groups:

– Working Group on Flight Risk Assessment over or near Conflict Zones, in accordance with ICAO Doc 10084. The Commission is analysing documentation provided by the aviation authorities of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan, as well as by Azerbaijan Airlines, regarding the organisation and implementation of risk assessment procedures. This work also examines civil–military coordination in ensuring flight safety.

The study of this issue is a key part of the investigation, aimed at determining whether the measures taken complied with existing regulations and identifying possible deviations that may have influenced the circumstances of the accident.

– Working Group on Layout Reconstruction. To restore the spatial relationships of hydraulic system fragments, a reconstruction of Hydraulic System No. 2 components was carried out in Aktau. The work has been completed, and analysis is ongoing.

Thus, to date, the investigation commission is awaiting the completion of the examination of the Central Maintenance Computer (CMC) cassette and the finalisation of the report by the Working Group on Flight Risk Assessment over or near Conflict Zones.

The Commission maintains a balanced position, and all conclusions will be objective and based solely on factual evidence. The final report on the investigation of the aviation accident will be published on the website of the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan.”

In turn, the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan also stated:

"We inform that, in accordance with the provisions of ICAO Annexe 13, the sole purpose of the investigation into an aviation accident is to prevent similar occurrences in the future. The aim of this activity is not to determine the degree of anyone’s fault or liability.

Notably, alongside the aviation accident investigation conducted by the Commission, a criminal investigation is being carried out by the law enforcement authorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

At the same time, we emphasise that according to Standard 5.4.1 of ICAO Annexe 13, any investigation conducted under the provisions of this Annexe is separate from any judicial or administrative proceedings aimed at establishing the degree of anyone’s fault or liability.

In accordance with paragraph 97 of the Rules, all information regarding the circumstances of the aviation accident may be used by investigation participants solely to implement corrective measures or actions aimed at improving flight safety. Information on the progress of the investigation is not disclosed to third parties until the investigation is completed.

The final timeline for completing the investigation depends on the completion of all assigned studies and tasks. Conclusions on the causes and/or contributing factors of the accident, as well as flight safety recommendations, will be presented in the Final Report."