Iraq walks a tightrope as Israel-Iran conflict threatens regional spillover

As Iranian missiles and drones traverse Iraqi skies, occasionally crossing paths with Israeli warplanes, Baghdad finds itself under mounting pressure to avoid being drawn into the widening Israel-Iran conflict.

Balancing longstanding ties with both Iran and the United States—Israel’s staunchest ally—Iraq is attempting a precarious diplomatic tightrope act. But the threat of spillover looms large, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

“There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,” warned political analyst Sajad Jiyad. “Iraqis have a right to be worried,” he added.

The potential for conflict escalation has risen sharply following Israel’s surprise assault on Iran last week. Pro-Iran factions in Iraq, many of whom have repeatedly called for the expulsion of US troops stationed in the country as part of an anti-jihadist coalition, may soon be compelled to act.

A senior Iraqi security official, speaking anonymously, claimed that “everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict.” But Jiyad cautioned that if Washington supports Israeli strikes, it “may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops” or American interests such as the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Erbil.

Such retaliation could invite further strikes from the US or Israel on Iraqi soil. Iraq has long been a hotspot for proxy confrontations, notably the 2020 US drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

In response to the current crisis, Baghdad has stepped up diplomatic efforts, urging the US to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace and asking Iran to refrain from attacking American targets in the country. Officials say Iran gave “positive” assurances.

Still, Israel’s reported use of Iraqi airspace has angered pro-Iran factions. Kataeb Hezbollah stated that Iran does not need “military support” but warned that if the US intervenes, the group “will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation.”

Meanwhile, the US has called on Iraq to “protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel.”

For now, Iran’s allies remain on standby. But, as analyst Tamer Badawi notes, “The more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in.”

By Vafa Guliyeva