ISW: How Ukrainian armed forces use delayed counteroffensive

The overall slower-than-expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks.

Ukrainian officials have long signalled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a series of gradual and sequential offensive actions and have more recently offered the observation that currently ongoing operations do not represent the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive planning, Caliber.Az quotes a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On June 20, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar emphasised that it is not useful to gauge the success of military actions based "solely by kilometres or the number of liberated settlements.”

Malyar’s statement echoes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s observation that war is not a “Hollywood movie” that will deliver immediate and tangible results.

According to ISW, the observation that current Ukrainian operations may have objectives that are not simply territorial is an important one.

“Ukrainian forces may be conducting several offensive operations across the entire theatre in order to gradually attrit Russian forces and set conditions for a future main effort. Losses are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the Ukrainian side likely seeks to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important observation that the degradation of Russian manpower is a valuable objective,” the report added.

Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin voiced his concern that Russian forces are suffering major manpower and equipment losses as a result of ongoing Ukrainian attacks, especially in southern Ukraine.

“The success of Ukrainian counteroffensives should not be judged solely on day-to-day changes in control of terrain, as the wider operational intentions of Ukrainian attacks along the entire frontline may be premised on gradually degrading, exhausting, and expending Russian capabilities in preparation for additional offensive pushes,” the ISW noted.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that the progress of Ukrainian counteroffensives has been slower than expected, likely due to effective Russian defences.
• The overall slower-than-expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks.
• Ukrainian defence industry conglomerate “Ukroboronprom” announced on June 20 that Ukraine built and successfully tested a 1,000km-range drone, indicating Ukraine’s intent and ability to target Russian military infrastructure in Russian-occupied territories and Russia with Ukrainian-made drones.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to codify legal mechanisms for forcible deportations from occupied areas of Ukraine.
• Russan and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut area and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian military command is reportedly forming a new Azov Naval District as part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
• The Russian State Duma passed a law in the third reading raising age limits for Russian contract personnel and officer, likely to keep personnel currently due to retire in the force.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to deport children from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise of medical necessity.