ISW: Iran prepares to build drone factories in Russia, Belarus

Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits.

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri called for greater defence industry cooperation between Iran and Belarus during a meeting with Belarusian Defence Minister Lt Gen Viktor Khrenin in Tehran on August 1, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the report, Iranian Defence and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Ashtiani signed a military cooperation agreement with Khrenin on July 31.

“CTP assessed that Ashtiani and Khrenin may have discussed establishing Shahed kamikaze drone factories in Belarus to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine claimed in May 2023 that Iranian engineers are exploring how to convert factories in Gomel, Belarus into drone production facilities,” the report added.

Besides, the ISW pointed out that the Biden administration revealed in June that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, Russia.

“Iran opened an Ababil-2 drone factory in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in May 2022. Bagheri notably attended the opening ceremony of this factory. The production of Iranian drones in Belarus and Russia will benefit both Russia and Iran:

• Russia will benefit by acquiring Iranian drones for its invasion of Ukraine more readily. Israeli and Ukrainian media have noted that the construction of an Iranian drone factory in Belarus would alleviate the ‘logistical problems’ Russia faces in transporting Iranian drones from Iran to Russia via the Middle East. The Biden administration published a map in June showing Iranian drone transfers from Iran to Russia through the Caspian Sea.
• Iran will benefit by receiving revenue for the Iranian economy. The British Secret Intelligence Service revealed in July that Iran seeks to acquire cash from Russia in return for Iranian drones.
• Iran is currently facing critical economic conditions, with the value of the rial surpassing 500,000 rials to one US dollar on August 1. The Iran Statistical Center reported on July 25 that Iran’s inflation rate is approximately 47.5 per cent.
• Russia can also benefit Iran's military. Western media speculated in late 2022 that Iran might receive Russian Su-35 fighter jets in return for supplying Russia with drones. Iranian military officials have increasingly expressed scepticism at receiving Su-35s in recent months, however. Western media reported in March that Russia provided Iran with advanced surveillance software and cyber weapons in exchange for drones. A high-ranking Israeli military official separately expressed concern in June that Russia is providing Iran with Western weapons captured in Ukraine," the report read.

According to ISW, Iran’s close cooperation with Belarus and Russia may stem, in part, because Iran has signed long-term strategic agreements with these countries.

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submersibles on August 1.
• Likely Ukrainian actors conducted another drone strike on Moscow City in the early hours of August 1.
• The Russian MoD continues to posture Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov as an effective and involved overall theatre commander in Ukraine.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may have signalled his intent to use the Wagner Group to create a foundation for an unspecified Belarusian “contract army.”
• Two Belarusian helicopters reportedly violated Polish airspace on August 1.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on August 1.
• Russian companies not under Western sanctions continue to recruit volunteers to fight in the war in Ukraine.
• Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 1 and made advances in certain areas.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 1 and advanced near Kreminna and Bakhmut.
• The Russian Cabinet of Ministers granted Russian volunteer fighters and Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR and LNR) militia fighters (opolcheniye) veteran status on August 1.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to deport children from occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of education and rehabilitation programs.