ISW: Putin declares ceasefire to avoid embarrassment during Victory Day celebrations

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine from midnight on May 7 to May 10, timed to avoid disruption during Victory Day celebrations marking the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany.

The Kremlin framed the ceasefire as a demonstration of Russia’s readiness for peace talks, though critics argue that Putin’s actions reveal a different motive, Caliber.Az reports via ISW.

Thus, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the ceasefire is a sign of Russia’s goodwill, despite Russia’s refusal to accept the March 2025 US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal. The Kremlin has made it clear that Russian forces will respond to any ceasefire violations, casting doubt on the genuine nature of the ceasefire, particularly as no monitoring mechanisms have been established.

The timing of the ceasefire is also significant as Putin prepares to host numerous foreign dignitaries from former Soviet, Latin American, Asian, and African countries for the Victory Day event. The Russian leader is likely keen to avoid the embarrassment of Ukrainian military strikes disrupting these celebrations.

Putin’s earlier declaration of a ceasefire in mid-April to mark the Easter holiday was similarly controversial, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces accusing each other of violating the truce. Furthermore, Russia has frequently accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire on energy infrastructure, though it has rarely provided concrete evidence to back up these claims.

In stark contrast, Ukrainian officials have expressed their support for a more comprehensive and permanent ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine is committed to a full ceasefire, calling for an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire in line with proposals from the United States. Zelenskyy’s position highlights the discrepancy between Russia’s sporadic ceasefires, which are often used for tactical and informational advantages, and the US-backed vision of a lasting peace built on an enduring ceasefire.

Putin's approach, it seems, is driven less by a desire for peace and more by strategic considerations, using ceasefires as a tool to manage international perception while maintaining control over the battlefield. While Russia may claim to be seeking peace, its insistence on unilateral ceasefires without clear monitoring or accountability mechanisms suggests that the true aim is to create a temporary lull in fighting, primarily to prepare for future operations.

By Aghakazim Guliyev