ISW: Regime in Iran fuels violent anti-government uprising by escalating crackdowns

The US-based Institute of the Study of War (ISW) gave recently an insight into the growing crisis in Iran catapulted by a young girl's death in police custody. Caliber.Az reprints the relevant report of the ISW:

The (Iranian) regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the political establishment. Protests continued on October 30 despite the call from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Hossein Salami for the immediate end of protests on October 29. Protest organizations have called for more demonstrations from November 1-3. The regime will likely intensify its crackdown further in the coming days as protests continue. Such an escalation will likely cause protesters to either stop demonstrating or escalate further in response.

Protesters are developing the infrastructure necessary to stage a protracted struggle against the regime. NBC News reported on October 29 that protesters have established an informal medical care network for injured demonstrators—another sign of the growing coordination and organization within the movement. Physicians are treating injured protesters in private homes so that protesters can avoid clinics and hospitals. Security forces have denied medical care to some injured protesters and used hospitals to identify and track them. The Tehran Neighborhood Youth published a statement praising medical professionals who joined the protests on October 30. CTP has previously reported on protesters’ impressive ability to coordinate large-scale demonstrations on specific dates and organize militant tactics against security forces. The formation of an informal medical network could facilitate other forms of logistical cooperation among disaffected citizens.

The regime’s increasing violence against university and high school students will likely entrench anti-regime sentiments among its young population, which will likely last for decades. Security forces continued using violence against students for the second consecutive day on October 30, clashing with students and firing live ammunition in one instance. Security forces violently arrested students and injured high schoolers on October 12, 24, and 29, as CTP previously reported. Amnesty International reported that Iranian security personnel killed at least 23 children in the Mahsa Amini protests on October 13, a figure that has almost certainly grown in recent days. This repression will likely alienate these youth from the regime for most if not all of their lives.

Repressing children may decrease the willingness of some security officers to continue cracking down, on the other hand. Less ideological security personnel may struggle to sustain this level of violence against children. CTP has not yet observed indications of insubordination among security personnel in recent days and will continue to update this assessment. The regime appears concerned about the morale of its security forces, however. Parliament approved a motion to increase the salary of military and security personnel by 20 per cent on October 30, likely to mitigate the risk of defections and insubordination among the security forces.

ISW lists the key takeaways of the anti-government rallies in Iran as follows:

- The regime may inadvertently push the ongoing protests to become an enduring uprising against the political establishment.
- Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 22 cities in 15 provinces.
- Unidentified individuals killed a Law Enforcement Command officer in Iranshahr, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
- The IRGC Intelligence Organization arrested three individuals who were preparing Molotov cocktails in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province.