ISW: Russia intends to combat in 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied territories, gain new ground, and set conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine that he likely expects to occur this winter.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made the remarks in its report on October 30, Caliber.Az reports.

Analysts note that the Russian president "is extraordinarily unlikely to seek direct military conflict with NATO. Putin is very likely to continue to hint at the possibility of Russian tactical nuclear use and attacks on NATO, however, as part of his effort to break the Western will to continue supporting Ukraine".

"This forecast rests on two assessments. First, Putin is setting conditions to continue throwing poorly prepared Russian troops directly into the fighting in Ukraine for the foreseeable future rather than pausing operations to reconstitute effective military forces. Second, Putin’s theory of victory relies on using the harsh winter to break Europe’s will," the report adds.

The report forecasts that Russia will continue to conduct conventional military operations well into 2023 rather than escalating to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or scaling back its objectives in pursuit of some off-ramp.

"Conscripts called up beginning on November 1, 2022, will thus likely be assigned to combat and support units in Ukraine and begin to arrive on the battlefield around May 2023," it said.