Japan's defence chief: “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow”

Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi emphasised the importance of a rules-based global order during his address at the Munich Security Conference, highlighting the connection between Indo-Pacific security and the Euro-Atlantic region as Japan monitors rising Chinese military activity.

“The very foundations that have underpinned the international order are being tested by real-world actions,” Koizumi said Friday. “Attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force must never be tolerated. That is why Japan does not view Ukraine as a distant European problem.”

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, Japan has increasingly drawn parallels between the two regions, with leaders warning that “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow”—a clear caution about the potential for a similar conflict in the Indo-Pacific, particularly if China were to target democratic Taiwan.

While Koizumi did not explicitly name China, he described a worsening regional security environment in areas where Beijing’s military presence has been expanding.

“Countries surrounding Japan continue their opaque military buildup and the regional military balance has been greatly and rapidly evolving,” he said. “In the East and the South China Seas, attempts to change the status quo by force persist. In the western and the southern Pacific, provocative military activities are intensifying.”

Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have deteriorated sharply following remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last year suggesting that a naval blockade near Taiwan could create a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially triggering the mobilisation of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces.

China, which considers Taiwan “the core of its core interests” and has vowed to bring the island under its control by force if necessary, demanded that Takaichi retract and reflect on her statements and responded with a series of retaliatory measures.

Takaichi, in turn, has sought to mitigate the impact of her comments, emphasising that her administration’s stance aligns with previous governments and maintaining that dialogue remains possible.

Koizumi reaffirmed this position during a question-and-answer session following his speech.

“Even though we have differences and we have disagreements, Japan’s stance is very clear: We are always open to dialogue,” he said. “So we are not going to shut down any channels, regardless of our differences. I’d like to send this message to the Chinese side that we always welcome dialogue.”

By Tamilla Hasanova