Media: China’s demographic decline begins to weigh on economy

China’s shrinking population is starting to impact its economic performance, with the country projected to lose around 60 million people over the next decade — roughly equivalent to the population of France (68.5 million), according to Rhodium Group experts.

They said this highlights a sharp decline in birth rates as a key driver, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

In 2025, China recorded 7.92 million births, down 17% from 2024.

The country’s population has now been falling for four consecutive years, with rising living costs and shifting social attitudes also contributing to the trend.

Researchers say the demographic downturn is already affecting public finances.

In 2025, government subsidies to social security funds reached a record 2.5 trillion yuan (about $425 billion), accounting for 10.1% of total budget expenditures.

If current demographic trends persist, this figure is expected to continue rising.

The report also notes that softer labour market conditions and slowing income growth could further accelerate depopulation.

A declining population, in turn, is likely to reduce lending volumes and put downward pressure on interest rates, the Rhodium Group warned.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov