Media: Magyar eyes defence overhaul in Hungary If he defeats Orbán

Péter Magyar’s potential election victory on April 12 is raising expectations that Hungary could reset its defence policy, boost military spending, and repair strained ties with NATO allies, though analysts warn that any shift would face major political and structural constraints after 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán.

Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza Party, has pledged to raise defence spending towards NATO’s 5% of GDP target by 2035, expand investment in the armed forces, review defence procurement contracts for corruption and reduce what he describes as Russian influence across the state apparatus, Politico writes.

“A new government will bring about a sea change” in Budapest’s defence policy, said Katalin Cseh, an independent Hungarian MP. “Tisza has been very, very outspoken about wanting to reclaim Hungary's place in the Western alliance and staying a reliable partner in NATO.”

However, the scale of the challenge is considerable. Hungary has been governed by Viktor Orbán since 2010, during which time its foreign policy has increasingly diverged from many EU and NATO partners, particularly over relations with Russia and support for Ukraine.

“It will be “a long and uphill battle for the new Hungarian government to regain trust and … do the necessary personnel changes and technical changes,” said Andras Racz, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Budapest has repeatedly obstructed EU initiatives on Ukraine, while maintaining comparatively low defence spending growth. It was the only NATO member to cut defence spending in real terms between 2024 and 2025, by around 6%, although it remained above the alliance’s 2% target.

Magyar’s programme also includes accelerating dual-use technology investment, reviewing the privatisation of the defence sector, and conducting a broad audit of foreign ministry and procurement IT systems to identify cybersecurity vulnerabilities. His platform also signals openness to Ukraine’s long-term EU accession.

Diplomats say a change in government could quickly improve Hungary’s relations with EU partners, including potential movement on financial support packages for Kyiv. “Moving on the loan would be a quick way to do so.”

Trust within NATO could also improve, according to alliance diplomats, though one senior official warned it would be “a huge change,” said a senior NATO diplomat.

Still, experts caution that deep institutional challenges remain, including the legacy of entrenched Russian influence within parts of the security apparatus. The feasibility of rapid reforms remains uncertain.

Racz also noted domestic fiscal constraints, arguing that defence spending increases may not be immediate given Hungary’s budget deficit and competing campaign promises. “In the short run, it's excluded,” he said.

Public opinion is another constraint, with analysts warning that attitudes towards Ukraine remain politically sensitive following years of government messaging. “After years of Fidesz propaganda, Ukraine is not a popular topic among Hungarian voters, so he will likely have to tread very carefully,” said the first EU diplomat.

 By Aghakazim Guliyev