Media: US eyes major blow to Iran's oil exports with potential sea interventions

The Trump administration is considering a plan to disrupt Iran’s oil exports by halting and inspecting Iranian oil tankers at sea. This would be part of a broader strategy to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and enforce sanctions against the country.

In an exclusive article, Reuters argues that under the proposal, allied countries could stop and inspect ships passing through vital maritime chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait. This measure would delay crude deliveries to refiners and could damage the reputations of those facilitating the illicit trade.

"You don’t have to sink ships or arrest people to have that chilling effect that this is just not worth the risk," one source said, emphasizing that the delay in oil deliveries would instill uncertainty in the trade network.

The administration is exploring whether these inspections could be conducted under the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a US-led initiative aimed at preventing the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction. Signed by over 100 countries, PSI could provide a framework for foreign governments to target Iran’s oil shipments on behalf of Washington, potentially disrupting Iran’s revenue streams. "The delay in delivery ... instills uncertainty in that illicit trade network," said one source, explaining the strategic advantage of such actions.

John Bolton, who was the US lead negotiator for the initiative when it was formed, supported the idea, stating, " "it would be fully justified" to use the initiative to slow down Iran oil exports. He noted that selling oil was "obviously critical to raise revenue for the government of Iran to conduct both its proliferation activities and support for terrorism."

The White House National Security Council is reportedly exploring the plan, but it remains unclear whether any countries involved in PSI have been approached for their cooperation. Previous attempts by the US to seize Iranian oil cargoes in 2023 led to retaliation from Iran, including the seizure of foreign ships. This has heightened the risk of escalating tensions in the region.

While low oil prices may provide the US with more leverage, according to energy analyst Ben Cahill, aggressive action against Iranian oil exports could reduce Tehran’s oil shipments by up to 750,000 barrels per day in the short term. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions may diminish over time as Iran finds ways to circumvent them.

Despite years of sanctions, Iran’s oil exports brought in an estimated $53 billion in 2023, largely through sales to China, a crucial source of revenue for the Iranian government. As the US considers further actions, the future of Iran’s oil trade remains uncertain.

By Vafa Guliyeva