Middle East conflict could disrupt global cigarette supplies

The ongoing tensions surrounding Iran could lead to disruptions in global supplies of cigarettes and cigars.

Sources cited by the Izvestia pointed to an unexpected consequence of the Middle East conflict, warning of potential instability in tobacco product supply chains, Caliber.Az reports.

Seven Persian Gulf countries — Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait — account for more than 20% of global tobacco exports.

Strikes on industrial and logistics facilities in the region have put their ability to supply these goods at risk, according to the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting.

Countries such as Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Singapore, Thailand, and several African nations rely on tobacco imports from the Middle East and are expected to be the hardest hit by any disruptions. Shortages could drive up prices and extend delivery times.

However, the impact may be mitigated by shifting production to other regions or redistributing supply chains, said Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

He said these risks are possible, but any resulting shortages could eventually be offset by relocating production to other regions or redistributing supply chains.

This means any shortage would quickly ripple down the supply chain, affecting paints, coatings, household chemicals, packaging, and automotive components, Chernov explained.

According to him, Russia is more likely to gain an opportunity to strengthen its export positions in fertilisers, petrochemicals, and aluminium.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov