NBC Poll shows deadlocked race between Harris and Trump as 2024 election nears

With the 2024 presidential election just a day away, the final national NBC News poll reveals a tightly contested race, with Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump each garnering support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup.

The poll reflects a nation deeply divided, with sharp contrasts between the candidates’ support bases and a mere 2% of voters remaining undecided, Caliber.Az reports, citing the final poll by NBC News.

The survey highlights distinct issues bolstering each candidate’s campaign. Harris enjoys a notable edge in Democratic enthusiasm and a 20-point advantage over Trump on the issue of abortion, as well as support from voters who feel she better represents the middle class. Meanwhile, Trump’s backing is bolstered by two-thirds of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track, his favourable comparison to President Joe Biden’s tenure, and a strong lead over Harris on economic issues and the cost of living.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, observed, “This is very stable data from where we were in October.” Despite the whirlwind of campaign activity and billions spent on ads, the race remains largely unchanged from last month, when both candidates were deadlocked at 48% each.

McInturff noted the deep-seated polarization of the electorate, stating, “We’ve grown further apart, and we’ve picked our corner. Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move.”

The poll underscores the significant gender gap in voting preferences, with a 30-point difference between men and women, further reflecting the nation’s polarization. In fact, 60% of voters anticipate that the country will remain divided, regardless of who wins.

The NBC News poll also provides insights into potential outcomes based on turnout. In a slightly more favourable scenario for Republicans — with increased turnout among men, white voters, and those without college degrees — Trump would lead Harris by 2 points, 50% to 48%. Conversely, a more favourable turnout for Democrats, with a higher presence of women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of colour, would give Harris a narrow 3-point edge, 50% to 47%. Both scenarios, however, fall within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

Ultimately, the outcome will hinge on key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where polls continue to indicate razor-thin margins. As McInturff put it, “This election is going to come down to the wire in the states that matter most.”

For the record, the US 2024 presidential election is set to take place on November 5, 2024. Voters across the country will decide whether to re-elect the incumbent Democratic administration or support a new president. This election holds significant political weight, especially as current Vice President Kamala Harris, potentially representing the Democratic Party, faces off against former President Donald Trump, who is a likely candidate for the Republicans. 

The election will include not only the presidential race but also various congressional seats, with all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 US Senate seats up for grabs. Local and state elections will also be held, affecting governors, mayors, and other local positions. Early voting, mail-in ballots, and absentee voting options are also available, allowing voters to participate ahead of Election Day.

By Khagan Isayev