New study reveals reasons behind frequent flooding in Mediterranean region

A new study published in Scientific Reports has found that the devastating floods that struck Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region in May 2023 were caused by a combination of meteorological and geographic factors, rather than a single extreme rainfall event. The floods killed seventeen people, displaced thousands, and caused an estimated €8.5 billion in damages.

Researchers found that the extreme flooding was the result of accumulated rainfall over several days, intensified by the region’s unique topography. Mountains surrounding Emilia-Romagna trapped moisture from the Adriatic Sea, creating what scientists describe as a “cul de sac” effect. This phenomenon, combined with a stationary cyclone that prolonged the rainfall, led to the rare and destructive flooding observed in 2023, Euronews points out.

The study also suggests that the same mechanism contributed to additional flooding events that struck the region in 2024. According to the researchers, this type of “persistent cyclone” pattern is not exclusive to Emilia-Romagna and could impact other Mediterranean regions with similar geography.

“Our analysis shows that the kind of persistent cyclone that caused the 2023 and 2024 Emilia-Romagna floods is not unique to this region,” said Enrico Scoccimarro, first author of the study and senior scientist at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change. “Other Mediterranean areas with similar geography could face the same risks.”

As global temperatures rise, extreme precipitation events are expected to increase, making such floods more frequent and intense. To improve preparedness, the study’s authors have introduced a new forecasting tool called the “cyclone density persistence” metric, designed to help forecasters track cyclones that may trigger extreme weather in vulnerable areas.

“This work represents the first step in a long-term plan to develop Early Warning Systems for flood events on a seasonal timescale at CMCC,” said Scoccimarro. “Our goal is to go beyond current limitations of state-of-the-art numerical models, and aim at higher skills in directly forecasting extreme precipitation, and help communities better prepare for floods.

By Sabina Mammadli