NYT: Iran braces for war with Israel but seeks to prevent escalation

In anticipation of a potential retaliatory strike from Israel, Iran has instructed its armed forces to prepare for war while simultaneously seeking to avoid conflict, mindful of the devastation faced by its allies in Lebanon and Gaza.

Four Iranian officials, speaking anonymously in telephone interviews this week, revealed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has directed the military to develop various contingency plans for responding to any Israeli attacks, Caliber.Az reports citing The New York Times's article.

Iranian officials indicated that if Israel's strikes caused extensive damage or casualties, Iran would retaliate decisively. In contrast, if the attacks are limited to military sites, a more restrained response may be considered. A strong response would likely follow any attacks on vital oil, energy infrastructure, or nuclear facilities. Iran is contemplating retaliatory measures such as launching up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, increasing attacks by proxy groups in the region, and disrupting global energy supplies, particularly through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

While Iran publicly claims it does not seek war, a significant Israeli military response could challenge its leadership's resolve to appear strong, especially after the assassinations of leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, both of whom are backed by Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently emphasized that any retaliation would be "proportionate and calculated."

The stakes are extremely high, as a full-scale war between Iran and Israel could escalate chaos in the region, undermine cease-fire prospects in Gaza and Lebanon, and potentially involve U.S. military action in support of Israel. In recent weeks, Iran has attempted to solidify alliances with regional Arab nations while warning them against aiding Israel, emphasizing that such actions would make them legitimate targets.

Public statements from Iranian officials have reflected a mix of rhetoric regarding potential retaliation. Some leaders have vowed to respond, while others have downplayed the significance of potential Israeli attacks. Political analyst Nasser Imani noted that if Israel's actions are deemed symbolic, Iran might refrain from a major response, as the country is not eager for a large-scale conflict.

Iran’s focus has shifted from viewing the U.S. as its primary threat to recognizing Israel as a real concern, especially after significant Israeli actions against Hezbollah. The ongoing conflict has placed Iran in a precarious position, with its military now on high alert and bolstered defences around sensitive sites.

Despite this military readiness, many Iranians remain anxious about the prospect of war. The economy is already feeling the strain, with the rial's value dropping and prices for essentials rising. Public support for a war against Israel seems limited, with many citizens expressing their desire to avoid conflict that doesn’t directly involve their country or people.

In Tehran, the atmosphere reflects a mixture of anxiety and wariness. While state propaganda promotes a strong stance against Israel, many residents feel left in the dark about the government's plans. As tensions rise, the sentiment among the population appears to lean towards caution, with many prioritizing domestic stability over involvement in foreign conflicts.

By Tamilla Hasanova