NYT: Russia’s advance in Ukraine loses momentum

President Vladimir Putin has sought to convince U.S. President Donald Trump that Russia is moving steadily toward victory in Ukraine, pressing Kyiv to surrender the entire Donbas region to avoid eventual defeat.

But battlefield developments suggest a far slower reality, according to The New York Times.

After making advances late last year, Russian forces have seen their momentum fade in recent months, according to multiple battlefield tracking groups. In some areas, Ukrainian troops have even reclaimed territory, underscoring the increasingly entrenched nature of the war.

At the current pace of advance, Russia would need decades to seize full control of the Donbas, which the Kremlin has made a key condition for ending the conflict.

The slowdown has been attributed partly to seasonal conditions, though Ukrainian officials say Moscow is preparing renewed offensives as warmer weather and thicker foliage improve battlefield mobility and provide cover from drones.

Russia’s campaign has also faced setbacks this year, including disruptions linked to the loss of Starlink satellite internet access used for drone operations and communication problems caused by Kremlin restrictions on the Telegram messaging platform.

The war has increasingly evolved into a contest of drone technology, with both sides racing to improve unmanned systems and countermeasures. Large-scale mechanised assaults have become rarer as drones dominate the battlefield.

Instead, Russian forces have increasingly relied on small infiltration teams operating on foot or motorcycles, gradually moving into contested areas that have become known as the “gray zone,” where control is unclear and troops from both sides operate simultaneously.

“The best they can do is these infiltration tactics and the targeting of the support networks pretty far behind the line — targeting Ukrainian drone teams and logistics support,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But it doesn’t lead to rapid gains. They are kind of stuck.”

The battlefield difficulties are adding to broader economic and political strains inside Russia.

Putin’s approval ratings have reportedly fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the war as heavy military spending pressures the economy and mobile internet blackouts imposed to counter Ukrainian drone attacks fuel public frustration.

Late Saturday, Putin signalled that the war could eventually end.

“I believe the matter is coming to a close, yet it remains a serious thing,” he said.

At the same time, the Russian leader maintained a defiant stance toward European countries supporting Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues to insist that Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas before meaningful peace negotiations can proceed. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said Moscow saw little point in further talks until Kyiv left the region.

Ukraine has rejected surrendering the territory, though discussions have continued around possible demilitarised arrangements.

Massicot said Moscow may now prefer a slower strategy that avoids the risks associated with large-scale offensives.

“I think it’s a combination of not having an operational solution and the Kremlin being satisfied with this level of political risk, and hoping that peace talks will negotiate away the difficult part, which is fighting for the rest of the Donbas,” she said.

Data from battlefield monitoring groups including the Institute for the Study of War, Black Bird Group and DeepState indicate Russia’s territorial gains have slowed significantly this year, with some organisations recording months of net losses.

According to Black Bird Group, Russia’s territorial gains over the past three months marked its weakest battlefield performance in Ukraine since 2023.

The limited advances have come at a heavy human cost.

Russian independent outlets Mediazona and Meduza estimated that 352,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war by the end of last year. U.S. and European officials also say Russia missed military recruitment targets earlier this year, raising concerns over how long the Kremlin can sustain the war without another mobilisation drive.

A 24-year-old Russian soldier who deserted last year described prolonged efforts to capture a single town near Pokrovsk, where repeated assaults were destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

According to the soldier, Russian troops later shifted to two-man infiltration teams moving separately to avoid detection and gradually establish a foothold.

The growing “gray zone” has also complicated casualty evacuations, with wounded troops often stranded in contested territory inaccessible to rescue teams.

Despite the slowdown, Ukrainian soldiers say Russian activity in the Donbas has intensified in recent weeks.

Senior Lt. Maksym Bakulin, a Ukrainian officer in the Donetsk region, said improved weather conditions and spring foliage had allowed Russian forces to move more covertly and resume motorcycle assaults.

“There has not yet been a ‘massive push,’” Bakulin said, “but everyone is talking about it, it could happen. We must always be ready.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev