Oil could surge to $150 as US–Iran tensions threaten global supply Rystad Energy warns

Oil prices could surge towards $150 per barrel if renewed hostilities between the US and Iran escalate further, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy, as tensions continue to unsettle supply flows across the Gulf region.

The Oslo-based firm warned that the latest escalation has already pushed the April ceasefire into its most fragile phase, with crude benchmarks rising sharply and broader financial markets, including US equities, coming under pressure, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

“At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode," Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said.

He added that Brent crude briefly climbed to around $94.5 per barrel before easing back towards $93, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty over the trajectory of the conflict.

Leon said the immediate impact of supply disruption could be partially offset by record Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, lower Chinese imports, and continued crude flows bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port.

“What is clearer is that the probability of a near-term deal has narrowed from our prior assessment of around 40 per cent a few weeks ago. The direction of travel is now more uncertain, and the next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle," he said.

The report also noted that around 11.8 million barrels per day of output across six Gulf producers has been disrupted, marking what it described as one of the most severe supply shocks in the modern oil era.

Rystad estimated that roughly one billion barrels of cumulative crude supply has been removed from global markets in the past three months, intensifying concerns over prolonged volatility until a clearer geopolitical resolution emerges.

By Aghakazim Guliyev