Oil prices fall as markets expect possible US–Iran talks to continue

Oil prices fell by more than $1 per barrel on April 21, partially reversing the previous day’s gains, amid expectations of renewed talks between the United States and Iran that could increase Middle East supply.

Brent crude futures fell by $1.04 (–1.1%) to $94.44 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $1.66 (–1.9%) to $87.95, Caliber.Az reports, citing Reuters.

The May WTI contract is expiring, while the more actively traded June contract declined to $86.18.

A day earlier, both benchmark grades had surged sharply: Brent rose 5.6% and WTI climbed 6.9% after reports that Iran had again closed the Strait of Hormuz and that the United States had seized an Iranian cargo vessel as part of a maritime blockade.

Investors are now focused on potential negotiations that could lead to an extension of a ceasefire or a broader agreement.

However, analysts warn that the market may be underestimating supply disruption risks.

“Optimism appears to be clouding ​the reality of the supply shock,” ING analysts said.

According to Citi, if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for another month, losses could reach 1.3 billion barrels, with prices potentially rising to around $110 per barrel in 2026.

Some analysts also believe that a full normalisation of supply could be delayed until the end of 2026.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov