Polls indicate Trump holds slim lead in key swing states

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a narrow lead over his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, in several crucial swing states.

According to recent polling data analyzed by RealClearPolitics, 48.3% of swing state voters support Trump, while 47.5% back Harris, Caliber.Az reports.

The most significant margins in Trump's favour are seen in Arizona, where he leads by 1.4 percentage points, and Georgia, where he holds a 1.1-point advantage. He is also slightly ahead in North Carolina (1 point), Michigan (0.9 points), Nevada and Pennsylvania (0.5 points each), and Wisconsin (0.1 points).

If these trends continue, Trump's path to victory in the presidential election looks promising, potentially securing him 312 electoral votes compared to Harris' 226, especially if he maintains support in both swing states and traditionally Republican-leaning areas.

Experts point out that one of Harris' key challenges is a noticeable decline in support from Hispanic and African-American voters, demographics that Trump successfully attracted in the 2016 and 2020 elections. A recent poll from the New York Times and the Siena Center indicates that only about 78% of Black Americans currently support Harris, a significant drop from the approximately 90% who voted Democratic in the last election. This decline is particularly attributed to male voters within the demographic.

Similarly, support among Latino voters has waned; in 2016, 68% voted for the Democratic candidate, dropping to 62% in 2020, and now polling suggests only 56% would support Harris. Experts attribute this shift to economic concerns, with some in the Latino and African-American communities aligning more closely with Trump on issues such as immigration, political correctness, and the role of men in society.

Many voters from these groups express dissatisfaction with rising inflation and the cost of living under the current administration, often recalling the economic policies from the Trump era.

In response, Trump has claimed, backed by polling data, that his support among Black and Hispanic voters is stronger than ever.

The presidential election in the United States is scheduled for November 5. Initially, incumbent President Joe Biden was expected to run for reelection, but following a lacklustre performance in a June debate against Trump, he opted out of the race, endorsing Harris as the Democratic nominee, who was officially confirmed at the party's convention in Chicago.

By Tamilla Hasanova