Pundit: Armenia refrains from war games to prevent tensions with Azerbaijan

Armenia is refraining from conducting large-scale military exercises due to concerns over a potential escalation with Azerbaijan, according to political analyst David Arutyunov.

In an interview with Armenian media, Arutyunov suggested that Yerevan is deliberately avoiding such manoeuvres to prevent triggering a response from Baku, Caliber.Az reports.

“Military drills of this scale could also be perceived as a political provocation,” he said. “It is possible the Armenian side fears that this would provoke some form of reaction from Azerbaijan—an escalation, and so on. In other words, official Yerevan may believe that Azerbaijan would use large-scale military exercises as a pretext for escalation.”

Expanding on the issue, Arutyunov argued that the Armenian authorities' caution is not limited to the military sphere.

“The concern extends beyond defence,” he explained. “Azerbaijan’s position is taken into account across many areas, including Armenia’s domestic agenda. And that is creating even more problems.”

According to the analyst, Armenia now faces a strategic crossroads.

“There are two options,” he noted. “Either this trend continues, and Armenia further limits its independence, or at some point the Armenian side must attempt to reverse this dynamic—even at the risk of potential conflict.”

Arutyunov concluded by acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding Yerevan’s future course, stating it remains unclear which path the country will ultimately choose.

By Aghakazim Guliyev