Pundit: West unlikely to support Armenia against Türkiye, Azerbaijan

Armenian political scientist Suren Surenyants has raised concerns about the Western stance on Armenia's security amidst regional tensions with Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

In a recent Facebook post, Surenyants highlighted the lack of commitment from Western allies in aiding Armenia against potential threats from its neighbours, Caliber.Az reports.

Quoting British Deputy Defense Secretary James Heappey, Surenyants pointed out that while the UK acknowledges Armenia's decision to freeze its CSTO membership as a sovereign right, there are doubts about substantial support in the face of adversities.

“The UK has accepted Armenia’s decision to freeze CSTO membership as that country’s sovereign right, and will work with its Euro-Atlantic allies to support Yerevan in the event of retaliatory threats from Russia,” Surenyants wrote quoting James Heappey.

He emphasized that Western partners seem more inclined to “safeguard” Armenia against Russian retaliation, rather than lending assistance against Azerbaijani or Turkish aggression.

“Western partners are extremely honest. They are not going to help us in case of threats from Azerbaijan, but they are ‘protecting’ us from the Russians, showing us the ‘door of hope’ on the way to Ankara, from where we must receive guarantees in order to ‘throw off the Russian yoke’,” he underlined.

Surenyants expressed scepticism about the West's intentions, suggesting that Armenia might be coerced into a vulnerable position akin to Ukraine's predicament. He warned against the possibility of Armenia becoming a pawn in geopolitical games aimed at weakening Russian and Iranian influence in the region, with little regard for Armenian statehood or the well-being of its people.

“We are openly offered to become Ukraine-2, and in this case, the West is not interested in the result of the process, but in the process itself, which could lead to the loss of Armenian statehood,” the pundit said.

Drawing historical parallels, Surenyants referenced British Prime Minister Salisbury's statement in 1896 regarding the limitations of military intervention to protect the Armenian population, which ultimately led to tragic consequences. He cautioned against placing undue trust in Western promises, noting that their primary interest lies in curbing Russian and Iranian influence rather than ensuring Armenia's security.

“On April 30, 1896, British Prime Minister Salisbury stated in the House of Lords that in order to protect the Armenian population, military intervention should be avoided, since ‘English ships cannot sail to the Taurus Mountains.’ We all know what happened next.

If anyone thinks that now the loud promises of the West will have a different effect, then this is a delusion.

The goal of Western centres is to weaken the influence of Russia and Iran in the region; what will happen to the Armenian people or Armenia as a result does not interest them at all. And not at all because they are ‘evil’ or ‘enemies’ of the Armenian people.

Absolutely not, the West simply has no political interest in supporting us against Türkiye and Azerbaijan, it is interested in our ‘anti-Russian’ potential,” writes the political scientist.