South Africa’s new energy outlook

South Africa’s government has unveiled a sweeping new energy policy aimed at reducing the country’s heavy dependence on coal and ending the rolling blackouts that have hindered economic growth for over a decade.

The revised Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), announced over the weekend, outlines a $127 billion investment in energy infrastructure by 2039, with a strong focus on nuclear power and natural gas. According to an article by Foreign Policy, the plan envisions nuclear and gas combined making up 16 per cent of total power generation—up from the current 4 per cent.

South Africa currently operates two nuclear reactors and intends to add more than 5,200 megawatts of new nuclear capacity. While much of its natural gas is imported from Mozambique, the government also plans to develop domestic gas fields to bolster energy security.

The policy stops short of eliminating coal. Instead, it seeks to make coal “clean”—a concept first introduced by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration in 2023. So-called clean coal involves filtering pollutants from coal-fired plants before they enter the atmosphere, often through carbon capture. However, critics contend that the technology remains unproven and that capture efficiency rates are low.

Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said coal’s share in South Africa’s energy mix will drop from 58 per cent to 27 per cent over the next 15 years. At the same time, wind power will rise from about 8 per cent to 24 per cent, and solar from roughly 10 per cent to 18 per cent.

“We are going to get cleaner,” Ramokgopa said, noting that a clean coal plant will be built by 2030 using newer, less polluting technologies. “We are not abandoning coal. We don’t have a coal problem, we have an emission problem.”

As Africa’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, South Africa’s decision to expand gas use and maintain coal production mirrors a broader global slowdown in green energy transitions since US President Donald Trump took office in January. During Trump’s second term, the United States has sharply reduced investments in clean energy both domestically and abroad.

Among the policies reversed was the Just Energy Transition Partnership—a flagship initiative launched in 2021 by then-President Joe Biden alongside G-7 and European partners. The partnership had pledged $56 million in grants and $1 billion in commercial loans to help South Africa, Indonesia, and Vietnam transition away from coal.

Some analysts believe the US pivot toward oil and gas under Trump has indirectly benefited African nations by easing pressure to meet what they see as unrealistic renewable energy targets. “Whatever else one thinks of it, the Trump administration appears, to its credit, determined to put an end to policies that restrict the development of Africa’s energy resources,” Foreign Policy noted in an earlier report.

So far, South Africa has secured approximately $13 billion toward its energy transition goals, including contributions from the European Union. However, the country still faces a significant funding gap to reach the $127 billion required for full implementation of the Integrated Resource Plan.

However, the article warns that even if funding for new energy projects is secured, domestic resistance could prove an obstacle, as local courts have pushed back against the South African government’s choice to adopt fossil fuels such as gas.

In September, South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal blocked plans to build a 3,000-megawatt gas-fired power plant due to a lack of public participation in the environmental approval process, while a court similarly squashed a controversial agreement in 2017 to hire Russia’s state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, in a $76 billion deal to build plants in South Africa.

By Nazrin Sadigova