Thailand's border conflict with Cambodia risks far-reaching escalation

In recent weeks, Thailand and Cambodia—two nations that have at times enjoyed strong diplomatic and economic ties—have become embroiled in an escalating border conflict that shows no signs of easing. This deterioration follows years of improving relations. As Time recalls, it was only a few years ago that Thailand’s then-ambassador to Cambodia, Panyarak Poolthup, told Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, “As we share a long border, we both know that we have to live and grow together … The political will is always there to resolve any issues that may arise.”

Despite a period of closer cooperation, tensions remained beneath the surface. Chief among them was an unresolved dispute over control of certain areas along the Thailand-Cambodia-Laos border. It was here, on May 28, that a clash broke out between Thai and Cambodian forces, resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier. What followed was a swift escalation with serious consequences.

According to an article by The Council on Foreign Relations, the confrontation has driven a deep wedge between two nations that had cultivated strong ties over the last decade. It is now threatening regional economic connections across mainland Southeast Asia—and could further destabilize Thailand, which has been politically volatile for the better part of twenty years.

Following the fatal clash, both sides traded accusations. Thailand claimed its soldiers were repelling an attack, while Cambodia alleged Thai troops had fired first. War of words ensued. Hun Sen—father of the current prime minister and still Cambodia’s most influential figure—declared publicly, “I do not wish to see any armed conflict break out, but I fully support the Royal Government’s decision to deploy troops and heavy weaponry to the border area as a means of preparing for defence in the event of continued aggression.” Thai leaders responded with pointed criticisms of their own.

But the standoff has moved well beyond statements. Both countries have increased troop deployments in the contested area. Cambodia halted petroleum exports to Thailand. The Thai military floated the idea of cutting internet access to Cambodia, prompting Cambodia to sever internet connections from Thailand. Thailand also shut its border to Cambodia, temporarily blocking the flow of Cambodian tourists—a major source of revenue.

The conflict has also sparked political fallout within Thailand. The Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in early July, pending an ethics review tied to a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian official. The call, made on June 15 and leaked days later, featured Paetongtarn referring to Senate President Hun Sen as “uncle”—a reflection of his longstanding friendship with her father, ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. In the conversation, she urged Hun Sen to ignore a Thai army commander critical of Cambodia and referred to the officer as “an opponent.” She also offered to accommodate Hun Sen’s requests, saying she would “try to manage that.”

Paetongtarn later claimed Hun Sen leaked the recording to “boost his popularity without regard for the impact on bilateral ties.” A poll conducted afterward showed that most Thais agreed with this interpretation.

In the wake of rising tensions, China has stepped forward, offering to mediate the dispute. The offer came from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a meeting with his Thai counterpart, Maris Sangiampongsa, on the sidelines of the ASEAN foreign ministers summit in Kuala Lumpur.

By Nazrin Sadigova