The Guardian: EU faces sanctions crossroads as Trump softens on Russia

European leaders are preparing to move forward with expanded sanctions on Russia without support from the United States, after Donald Trump failed to follow through on threats to introduce sweeping new measures against Moscow.

Despite pledges of “massive” new sanctions in response to Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a ceasefire in Ukraine, the EU now faces the challenge of enforcing tighter economic restrictions largely on its own. Hopes that the US president would bolster European efforts were dashed following a two-hour phone call between Trump and Putin on May 19, which yielded no firm commitments, Caliber.Az writes, citing an article by the Guardian.

“Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump posted on social media. Ukraine, he added, “can be a great beneficiary on trade in the process of rebuilding its country.”

In response, the European Union has pressed ahead with its 17th package of sanctions against Russia this week. 

On May 20, the EU expanded its sanctions list to include dozens of additional Russian individuals and companies, bringing the total number of sanctioned entities to over 2,400. Notably, the package also targets Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—aging tankers operating under flags of convenience to export oil in violation of Western price caps.

Since the G7 and EU imposed a $60-per-barrel price ceiling on Russian oil, European shipping companies have offloaded numerous vessels, which are then re-registered in non-participating countries such as India, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Seychelles. These ships enable Moscow to continue selling oil above the cap. The latest EU sanctions bar 189 additional vessels from accessing European ports or insurance, raising the total number of sanctioned ships to 342.

Still, the measures are seen as inadequate by several EU nations. One diplomat estimated that Russia’s shadow fleet has ballooned from around 100 ships two years ago to approximately 800 today.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has signaled that tougher sanctions are in the works, including measures targeting Russian energy and banking sectors, and potential actions against the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. 

“The idea [of sanctions] is to dissuade any interest, notably interest from investors, from pursuing any activity in Nord Stream in the future,” her spokesperson said.

The Commission is also exploring a reduction in the oil price cap, although these efforts still fall short of what Ukraine and its most supportive EU allies are demanding. Nordic and Baltic states, in particular, are calling for an immediate halt to all Russian gas imports. The Commission has proposed a phase-out by the end of 2027, but the EU continues to be Russia’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas, much of which reaches Germany via Belgium.

According to leaked documents seen by Reuters, Kyiv is also urging the EU to impose secondary sanctions on foreign nations that continue to buy Russian oil—potentially including large importers like China and India. The EU has so far only sanctioned a small number of foreign companies supplying Russia with military technology. Ukraine has also called for lowering the oil price cap to $30 per barrel.

However, the EU’s ability to act unilaterally is limited. The existing oil price cap was coordinated through the G7, including U.S. participation. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, emphasized the importance of the measure: “The most important [measure] in the 18th package,” she said, referencing the impact of fossil fuel revenues on the Russian economy. “It is not doing well,” she added, citing recent reports.

Concerns are growing that any shift in the US position could undermine European unity. Hungary, which has previously threatened to block sanctions, could veto the renewal of EU measures when they come up for review in July—a move that might lead to the unfreezing of €210 billion in Russian central bank assets held in Europe.

Some countries, particularly in the Baltics, may reimpose sanctions at a national level. However, not all EU states have the legal capacity to act independently. Officials are now exploring alternative approaches to “Hungary-proof” future measures, including capital controls and punitive tariffs targeting specific sectors of the Russian economy. Unlike sanctions, these trade-related actions can be passed by a qualified majority.

By Sabina Mammadli