Troubling climate-damaging trends that went unnoticed in 2024

The past year has been rife with alarming developments in climate news, emphasizing the intensifying challenges posed by climate change. In March 2024 the UN confirmed that the while the previous year was the hottest year on record, predictions published in November showed that 2024 would surpass it. Donald Trump's victory in US elections point to a return to pro-petroleum policies and a rollback of support for clean energy while the rapid expansion of energy-intensive AI technologies is forcing utilities to reconsider shutting down fossil-fuel power plants.

Beyond these headline-grabbing issues, other worrying trends have largely gone unmentioned in the media. The American Bloomberg publication has highlighted some of those worrisome developments, which implications are equally dire in the fight for combating climate change.

Decline in hydroelectricity

Hydropower, the world’s largest source of clean energy, is grappling with serious challenges. Unlike wind or solar, which frequently dominate renewable energy discussions, hydropower has been largely overlooked, despite its critical role in the global energy mix. For the past five years, global hydroelectric output has stagnated, with key regions experiencing significant setbacks.

In the United States, hydroelectric generation has dropped by roughly 20% since its peak in 2017. China’s reliance on hydropower was also undermined when late-summer rainfall failed in the Yangtze River basin, leading to near-drought conditions and forcing coal plants to ramp up production in September to compensate. Similarly, Brazil, heavily reliant on hydroelectric dams, has turned to record coal imports to make up for weak dam output.

While hydropower’s seasonal variability has always made it susceptible to fluctuations, its recent underperformance may indicate a more systemic problem. Climate change, the very crisis hydropower seeks to mitigate, is disrupting the natural cycles of rainfall and snowmelt that dams depend on, raising concerns about the sector’s reliability in the ongoing energy transition.

Rising Demand for Palm Oil

The escalating demand for palm oil represents another critical issue. Known for its questionable use in food and cosmetics, palm oil’s production has devastating environmental consequences, primarily through deforestation. Over the past decade, Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel mandates have driven a massive increase in palm oil demand. These policies, aimed at blending biodiesel with traditional fuels, have made Indonesia the world’s largest consumer of palm oil for energy.

Newly elected President Prabowo Subianto has pledged to raise the current biodiesel blend from 35% to 50% by 2028. However, even industry experts are skeptical about whether the existing plantations can meet this demand. An August study estimated that achieving these targets would require clearing an additional 5.3 million hectares of forest—an area 25% larger than Denmark—by 2042. Such expansion not only accelerates deforestation but also diverts resources away from sustainable transport alternatives like electric vehicles and public transit, perpetuating a cycle of environmental degradation.

Coal’s Resurgence in India

Coal, long seen as a fading relic of India’s energy past, is experiencing a troubling revival. A decade ago, the country’s overbuilt coal plants were underutilized and unprofitable, leading to predictions of their decline as cheaper renewables gained momentum. However, recent trends have reversed this narrative.

India has emerged as the only major economy with a significant increase in coal consumption this year, even as demand stagnates in China and declines in the United States and Europe. Utilization rates for coal plants have remained robust for nearly two years, restoring profitability to the sector. While India’s solid fuel generation capacity had been shrinking, state-owned Coal India Ltd. now plans an $8 billion investment in new coal plants. The government has also announced plans to expand the coal fleet by a third by 2032.

These developments underscore a potential pivot away from renewables unless the country’s ongoing solar and wind boom can outpace coal’s resurgence. If not, India’s grid risks further entrenching fossil fuels in its energy mix, complicating global climate goals.

The cumulative impact of these trends highlights the complexity of the global energy transition. Addressing these challenges requires urgent action to balance development with sustainability, ensuring that progress in some areas does not come at the expense of setbacks in others.

By Nazrin Sadigova