Trump-Kim meeting appears unlikely amid divergent strategic priorities

US President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to South Korea this week has sparked speculation about a possible surprise meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. While Trump signaled his openness by saying he was “100% open” to talks, North Korea has remained silent, suggesting a repeat of the 2019 Panmunjom encounter is unlikely.

Despite Trump’s supposed willingness to engage, his signals have been ambiguous. When asked on October 25 if he planned to meet Kim, Trump told reporters onboard Air Force One, “I would if he would contact [me.]”

As HankYoreh writes, it is unclear whether the comment reflects the practical difficulties of arranging working-level meetings before an impromptu summit or is an attempt to deflect pressure over his eagerness to meet Kim. Trump's packed schedule further complicates the possibility: on Octobger 29, he is set to meet South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Gyeongju, followed by a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan on October 30.

North Korea’s recent actions indicate that Kim is prioritising relations with Beijing and Moscow over the US. At a groundbreaking ceremony for the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats in Pyongyang, Kim stated, “Pyongyang will always be with Moscow.”

He also visited a cemetery for Chinese soldiers who fought in the Korean War, emphasising North Korea’s close ties with China. Additionally, the launch of two hypersonic projectiles by North Korea’s Missile Administration hints at a lack of enthusiasm for meeting the US.

Further signaling a rebuff, North Korea’s state-run Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui is scheduled to visit Russia and Belarus. While the announcement did not detail the agenda, it appears to preemptively close the door on a last-minute meeting with Trump.

This contrasts sharply with the 2019 Panmunjom meeting, when less than five hours after Trump tweeted, “If Chairman Kim of North Korea sees this, I would meet him at the Border/DMZ just to shake his hand and say Hello(?)!”, Choe described the message as “a very interesting suggestion.”

The diplomatic context has also shifted. In 2019, both countries had political incentives to sustain the momentum of their 2018 summit, even after the Hanoi summit faltered. Today, they are struggling to agree on the conditions for engagement.

Kim recently told North Korea’s legislature, “there is no reason for us not to come face to face with” the US if it abandons the “absurd pursuit” of denuclearisation, effectively demanding recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state.

Meanwhile, the US maintains it is open to talks “without any preconditions” but continues to uphold the goal of complete denuclearisation. Trump has described North Korea as “sort of a nuclear power” but is unwilling to formally recognise its nuclear arsenal.

With these divergent positions and North Korea’s focus on strengthening ties with Russia and China, the likelihood of a surprise meeting between Trump and Kim appears slim. 

By Sabina Mammadli