Trump team mulls tougher sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela Game-Changer for Global Oil

Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are shaping a comprehensive sanctions strategy to support a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal while increasing pressure on Iran and Venezuela, sources familiar with the matter revealed.

This comes after the Biden administration imposed its toughest sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade, raising questions about Trump's stance, particularly in light of his desire to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

The Trump team is considering two main approaches: one that could ease sanctions on Russian oil producers if a resolution to the war is imminent, and another that would tighten measures to strengthen leverage.

“The approach that Trump ultimately chooses is pivotal to the global oil market,” one insider noted, as Brent futures have surged nearly $5 a barrel since Biden's sanctions were introduced.

Trump’s strategy is still in its early stages, with his cabinet nominees and former sanctions officials weighing in on the decisions. Several conservative think tanks are also being consulted, although Trump’s picks for key economic roles have yet to be announced.

The challenge, as with the Biden administration, lies in balancing the use of sanctions with the need to prevent disruptions to the global oil market, particularly as sanctions target three of the world’s largest oil producers.

A crucial moment will come in mid-March when a general licence permitting some Russian energy transactions expires. If the Treasury Department allows this exemption to lapse, it could intensify pressure on Russia.

Trump’s team is also exploring secondary sanctions, which could target European and Asian shippers, including Chinese and Indian entities, and consider more assertive measures on tankers moving Russian oil through key choke points in Denmark and Türkiye.

Simultaneously, Trump’s advisers are planning an aggressive strategy for Iran, with a major sanctions package aimed at Tehran’s oil industry potentially arriving by February. This strategy would mirror actions from Trump’s first term, which severely curtailed Iranian oil exports.

In Venezuela, the situation is more complex, as President Nicolas Maduro continues his rule amid accusations of election fraud. The Trump team is considering a return to a maximum pressure approach, with Mauricio Claver-Carone, a key adviser from Trump’s first term, expected to play a prominent role in Latin American policy.

By Aghakazim Guliyev