US-China rivalry puts squeeze on South Korea in Taiwan Strait

South China Morning Post has published an article arguing that Seoul is expected to stick to its one-China policy but observers note a stronger tone as it moves closer to Washington. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

South Korea’s room for strategic ambiguity is narrowing, as President Yoon Suk-yeol becomes more vocal about the tensions in the Taiwan Strait, analysts said.

While official language remains vague, in line with Seoul’s long-standing position, Yoon adopted a stronger tone more in line with US rhetoric during his visit to Washington late last month.

Observers expect South Korea to continue to tread a fine line between China and US in their geopolitical rivalries, but said Seoul is likely to move closer towards Washington’s position, as it seeks more protection from the nuclear threat to the North.

Ma Jianying, director of Shandong Normal University’s Centre for Maritime Security Studies, said Seoul previously intervened in the Taiwan issue by stressing the importance of peace and stability.

“But the joint statement between the US and South Korea this time has apparently intensified intervention in the strait by stressing opposition to using force to change the status quo,” he said.

The statement – issued by Yoon and US President Joe Biden in Washington to mark the 70th anniversary of the US-South Korean alliance – strongly opposed any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific, “including through unlawful maritime claims, the militarisation of reclaimed features and coercive activities”.

The line has not appeared in previous annual joint statements from the bilateral leaders’ summits since 2021.

“Although it did not specify the Taiwan Strait, opposing any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific naturally includes the Taiwan Strait … It could be South Korea’s calculation to avoid irritating China too much, so they decided to be more vague in their language,” Ma said.

But Ma expects Yoon to become more explicit in his stance against potential military action in the Taiwan Strait, as his room for strategic ambiguity shrinks under rising China-US rivalry.

Seoul will continue to adhere to its “one-China policy” but will gradually state its opposition to mainland China using force in the strait, he said.

During their six-day summit, Biden and Yoon unveiled the Washington Declaration, which includes the establishment of a nuclear consultative group to strengthen the extended deterrence against North Korea.

Li Mingjiang, an international relations associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, also said the additional line was aimed at China adding that the overall joint statement showed “much greater South Korean interest in playing a role in Indo-Pacific security”.

Li, also noted “stronger US-South Korea cooperation in addressing regional security challenges” and said Seoul’s more overt stance on Taiwan is partly in exchange for American protection against nuclear threats from North Korea.

But he noted that Beijing was more infuriated by Yoon’s remarks ahead of his US trip, when he compared the Taiwan issue with North and South Korea, describing the former as a global concern and “not simply an issue between China and Taiwan”.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin hit back a day after Yoon’s comments were published by Reuters, saying the two issues were “completely different and not comparable at all”.

Seoul summoned the Chinese ambassador in protest, prompting a counter-summoning by Beijing of the South Korean envoy, while Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang warned of “dangerous” consequences for those who “play with fire”.

“For a long time, Beijing has tried very hard to get the outside world to accept the Chinese narrative that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair,” Li said.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under mainland control. Most countries, including South Korea and the US, do not recognise the island as a sovereign state.

But with more countries – including Japan and Germany – voicing concerns about Taiwan, Yoon’s remarks have added to Beijing’s fears of further “internationalisation” of the issue, Li said.

He added that Seoul’s growing support for the US and the significant improvement in its relations with Japan could prompt Beijing to provide stronger strategic support to North Korea.

While it was not surprising to see Yoon enunciating his stance on Taiwan, his recent remarks seem to mark a departure from previous limits on what Seoul is prepared to say against China, an Australian observer said.

“Statements under Yoon are approaching the tone and content of those made by some of the other core US allies in the region, such as Australia and Japan,” said David Hundt, an associate professor specialising in Korean politics at Deakin University.

Choo Jaewoo, a professor specialising in Chinese foreign policy at South Korea’s Kyung Hee University, said Yoon’s position “is to basically support all the foreign policy causes that the US pursues. No less no more. He wants to demonstrate his administration is with the US all the way.”

Despite being more vocal, Seoul has not shifted its stance on pursuing peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, said Choo.

Yoon has been advocating for a more active and hardline foreign policy than most of his predecessors.

His administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy released in December vows to bolster cooperation with US-led security organisations like the Quad and Nato. But it also attempts to strike a balance, calling China a “key partner” for regional peace and stability.

The strategy also stressed the importance of cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing, suggesting the resumption of trilateral summits, last held in 2019.

Many speculated last year that Yoon avoided meeting Nancy Pelosi last year to avoid Beijing’s wrath. The former US House speaker was in Seoul after a high-profile visit to Taiwan that sparked fury in Beijing.

But Pelosi’s trip to Taipei – which resulted in three days of intensive People’s Liberation Army exercises around the island – could also have been a tipping point for South Korea.

The unprecedented drills in the Taiwan Strait stirred a wave of insecurity in Seoul, said Ma, the maritime security expert.

He pointed out that US military forces based in South Korea could be expected to take part in any conflicts in the strait, and Seoul would be worried that China might work with North Korea to contain them.

“If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it will be a very serious issue of regional security for Seoul,” Ma said.