US fears Israeli invasion of Lebanon could trigger Iran-Russia military alliance

US defence and intelligence officials have expressed concerns that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon could intensify regional tensions and strengthen Iran's military ties with Russia.

This apprehension stems from intelligence suggesting Russia may increase its support for Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, Caliber.Az reports, citing a UK-based news website.

Current and former US officials, speaking to Middle East Eye (MEE) on condition of anonymity, emphasized the potential "secondary" and "tertiary" effects of an Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah. These officials warn that such an attack could prompt Russia to bolster its military assistance to Iran and its allies.

One senior US official revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating providing Houthi rebel fighters in Yemen with anti-ship ballistic cruise missiles. This move would signify a significant escalation in Russian involvement in the region.

The notion of increased Russian support for Iran's allies is not new. In November, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Wagner group, a Russian paramilitary organization, had planned to supply Hezbollah with a Russian air defense system. William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA, told MEE, "If Israel attacks inside Lebanon, it would likely prompt a further deepening of the military relationship that Iran has with Russia in order to help Hezbollah defend itself."

Usher added, "Russia could already be thinking about how it would assist the Houthis."

Russia maintains an alliance with Iranian forces and allied groups supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In January, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the Kremlin's top Middle East official, hosted a Houthi delegation in Moscow, signaling continued Russian engagement with Iranian-backed factions.

The prospect of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon has raised alarms about a broader regional conflict. US officials are particularly concerned about the potential for increased coordination between Iran and Russia, which could further destabilize the Middle East and complicate US foreign policy in the region.