US on track for largest record drop in mass murders in last 19 years

The United States is on pace for the largest one-year decline in murders in the nation’s history, according to an analysis by crime statistics expert Jeff Asher. The drop is part of a broader reduction in violent crime following the COVID-era spike, with mass killings also falling in 2025 to their lowest level since 2006.

Data from the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which compiles information from 570 law enforcement agencies, show murders are down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024. The RTCI, which excludes manslaughter, self-defence, negligence, and accidental deaths, currently provides figures through October, Axios writes.

The FBI will release official 2025 violent crime data next year, though RTCI estimates have historically aligned closely with federal figures.

Other crime categories also saw significant decreases nationwide, including motor vehicle thefts (down 23.2%), aggravated assaults (down 7.5%), and robbery (down 18.3%).

Major UScities saw notable reductions: New York City and Memphis both recorded nearly a 20% drop in murders, Chicago saw a decline of almost 28%, Los Angeles County reported a nearly 19% decrease, and New Orleans experienced a smaller reduction of 7.5%.

However, some areas reported spikes. Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, each recorded murder increases of 600%, according to the RTCI.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

By Sabina Mammadli