Falling birth rates push Estonia toward historic military shift

Estonia could be forced to introduce mandatory military service for women within the next 15 years as the country faces a sharp decline in male birth rates.

Defence officials have warned that the demographic downturn may eventually leave the NATO member unable to meet its military staffing requirements using male conscripts alone, as Estonian media reports.

Among those sounding the alarm is Anu Rannaveski, the Head of Estonia’s Defence Resources Agency, the government body responsible for managing conscription. She said the falling number of young men reaching military age could prevent the Baltic state from meeting troop targets laid out in its long-term defence plans by 2040.

“By 2040, the problem will already be very clear, that we will not be able to fill 4,100 places,” she told Estonian reporters.

The figure refers to Estonia’s planned annual intake of conscripts under its national defence strategy, which is designed to maintain the country’s wartime reserve forces as security concerns intensify along NATO’s eastern flank.

The northernmost Baltic state, home to around 1.3 million people, currently operates mandatory military service for men, while women may enlist voluntarily.

However, Rannaveski said demographic trends are increasingly pushing policymakers to consider extending conscription to women as well.

“If in previous generations up to 15,000 boys were born every year, this has fallen to 4,000–5,000,” she said.

While she clarified that Estonia still has enough eligible young men to sustain the current system in the short term, the official warned that authorities must begin preparing now for the long-term consequences of declining birth rates.

Demographic challenges, among others, has given rise to several European countries already having adopted gender-neutral military service or are moving in that direction.

In 2015, Norway became the first NATO member to introduce mandatory conscription for women, followed by Sweden in 2017. Denmark began incorporating women into its draft system this year, while Latvia has indicated that compulsory service for women could be introduced around 2028.

By Nazrin Sadigova