US population growth slows sharply amid declining immigration

The United States may be on the verge of a historic demographic shift, as population growth slows to its lowest rate since the pandemic.

According to newly released US Census data cited by Bloomberg, the country added just 1.8 million people in the year prior to July 1, 2025—a growth rate of 0.5%. Experts warn that the trend, driven largely by falling immigration, could bring about the first sustained population decline in US history.

Net migration—the difference between people entering and leaving the country—fell to 1.3 million in the year prior to July 2025, down from a peak of 2.7 million in the previous year. The Census Bureau projects that by 2026, net migration could fall further to just 316,000, putting the country on track toward “negative net migration."

While media attention has focused on high-profile deportations, Census officials say the main driver of the slowdown is a sharp drop in new arrivals, rather than the number of people being removed from the country.

The broader implications are significant. The US recorded 519,000 more births than deaths in the most recent period, but that natural population increase is shrinking.

Nonpartisan analyses from the Congressional Budget Office indicate that by 2030, the US could become entirely dependent on immigration to maintain population growth.

Historically, the United States has relied on immigration to offset declining birth rates and an aging native-born population. If the current trends continue, the country may experience a population plateau—or even contraction—decades earlier than previous projections, Bloomberg notes.

Experts across the political spectrum agree that immigration policies will play a decisive role in shaping the country’s demographic future as it approaches its 250th anniversary.

By Sabina Mammadli