Vietnam abandons two-child policy as birth rates plunge and population ages

Vietnam has officially scrapped its decades-old two-child policy as the country grapples with falling birth rates and looming demographic challenges that threaten long-term economic growth.

On June 4, the National Assembly passed amendments abolishing rules that had limited families, especially Communist Party members, to one or two children, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Previously, civil servants and party members risked losing promotions or bonuses if they exceeded the limit.

The policy, first introduced in 1988 to manage population pressure during the country’s transition from postwar recovery to a market-oriented economy, helped reduce strain on limited resources. Since then, Vietnam's population has grown from about 62 million to more than 100 million by 2023. But now, officials worry the pendulum has swung too far.

Vietnam’s fertility rate has dipped steadily over the past few years: from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.91 in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1. The decline reflects shifting priorities among young couples in urban centres like Hanoi. Nguyen Thu Linh, a 37-year-old marketing manager, said she and her husband decided to have only one child to provide the best possible upbringing. “Sometimes I think about having another child so my son can have a sibling,” she said, “but there’s so much financial and time pressure.”

Demographers warn that the country’s so-called “golden population” period—when the number of working-age people significantly exceeds dependents—will likely end by 2039. Vietnam’s labour force is expected to peak in 2042, with the population projected to begin shrinking by 2054. As the number of elderly people grows, experts fear this will place a heavy financial burden on the economy.

Vietnam also faces a persistent gender imbalance due to a long-standing preference for sons. Though sex-selective abortions are banned and doctors are prohibited from disclosing a baby’s gender before birth, the practice still occurs through coded hints. In response, the health ministry has proposed tripling the penalty for selecting a child’s sex before birth to $3,800.

Vietnam’s demographic dilemma echoes a broader regional trend. In Japan, government data released the same day showed the number of newborns fell for the 16th consecutive year, plunging to a record low of 686,061 in 2024 — a 5.7% drop from the previous year. Japan’s fertility rate dropped to 1.15 in 2024, compared to 1.2 in 2023.

Japan’s population of about 124 million people is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, with 40% of the population over 65.

Like Japan, China has struggled to reverse a similar trajectory, despite relaxing its one-child policy to allow up to three children by 2021. These measures have largely failed to encourage more births, as younger generations delay or avoid marriage due to poor job prospects, high living costs, and rigid gender roles.

By Tamilla Hasanova