Voters to face unpredictable elections soon in these S. American countries

Three presidential elections scheduled for the first half of 2026 in Latin America — in Costa Rica, Peru and Colombia — are shaping up to be among the most unpredictable in the region’s recent history. With fragmented candidate fields, inconclusive polling and large shares of undecided voters, none of the races currently has a clear favourite. Adding to the uncertainty is a shared experience from the previous election cycle in each country, when late surges by unexpected candidates upended campaigns and reshaped outcomes.

This lack of a clear narrative reflects deeper structural problems not only in these three political systems, but across much of the region, according to an analysis by World Politics Review.

Costa Rica

Costa Rica will hold the first of the three elections on Feb. 1, with a runoff scheduled for April 5 if no candidate wins more than 40 percent of the vote. Former chief of staff and designated successor to President Rodrigo Chaves, Laura Fernandez, currently leads the race with around 40 percent support in polls. However, she faces a crowded field of 19 other candidates, none of whom has reached double digits.

Despite Fernandez’s apparent lead, uncertainty remains high. Polls indicate that more than 40 percent of voters are still undecided just weeks before the election, while roughly 75 percent say they do not identify with any political party.

Such volatility has become characteristic of Costa Rican politics. In the 2022 election, Chaves was polling in the single digits and sitting in fifth place just two weeks before the first round. He then surged late in the campaign, advanced to the runoff and defeated former President Jose Maria Figueres.

If Fernandez fails to secure a first-round victory, the article argues, the door remains open for a lesser-known contender to emerge and capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment.

Peru

In Peru, where elections are scheduled for April 12, the situation appears even more fragmented. The country’s electoral authority has registered 34 presidential candidates — nearly double the number that ran in 2021 — yet public support remains deeply divided.

According to the latest Ipsos poll, 48 percent of Peruvians are undecided or plan to cast a blank or null vote. Former Lima mayor Rafael Lopez Aliaga leads the field with just 10 percent support, followed by Keiko Fujimori, who is running for president for the fourth time, at 7 percent. The remaining 32 candidates poll even lower.

Public disillusionment with presidential politics runs deep in Peru. Since 2016, no president has completed a full term, and the country has seen seven presidents in less than a decade. Many former leaders have later faced prosecution — often on corruption charges — and imprisonment.

The 2021 election underscored this volatility. Rural schoolteacher Pedro Castillo rose from single-digit support to 18 percent in the final week before the first round, secured a runoff spot and narrowly defeated Fujimori. His presidency lasted just 17 months before Congress removed him in December 2022 following an attempted coup against the legislature.

The author concludes that Peru is likely headed for another uncertain first round, followed by a deeply polarizing runoff between two candidates who are unpopular with much of the electorate.

Colombia

Colombia’s presidential contest, scheduled for May 31, features even greater fragmentation. At one point, more than 100 individuals expressed interest in running. While dozens remain active, ongoing signature collection requirements and a complex mix of party primaries and coalitions are expected to narrow the field before election day.

Some frontrunners are beginning to emerge across the left, center and right of the political spectrum. Still, with so many candidates in play and the field not yet fully defined, the outcome remains highly uncertain.

Colombia experienced a similar late shake-up during its 2022 election. Businessman and former Bucaramanga mayor Rodolfo Hernandez surged from single digits to 28 percent in the final weeks of the first round, eliminating conservative establishment candidate Federico Gutierrez. Hernandez’s campaign, built largely on TikTok videos and anti-corruption messaging, ultimately fell short against Gustavo Petro in the runoff due to limited party infrastructure.

Given the crowded field once again, the possibility of another late-surging candidate disrupting the race appears significant.

Washington wildcard looms over elections

A new and unpredictable factor hovering over all three elections is the potential influence of US President Donald Trump. Since returning to the White House, Trump has made the Western Hemisphere a key focus of his foreign policy.

During his first year back in office, Trump actively involved himself in Argentina’s congressional midterms and the presidential elections in Ecuador and Honduras, with his preferred candidates or factions performing well in each case. He could choose to intervene in the upcoming elections by endorsing candidates or urging voters to reject those he opposes.

While it remains unclear whether a Trump endorsement would boost a candidate or trigger a backlash, his potential involvement adds another layer of complexity to races already defined by volatility, fragmentation and voter uncertainty.

By Nazrin Sadigova